North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Positioning leads to new contract highs

WINNIPEG, April 26 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures finished stronger on Monday, with the most active months hitting new contract highs. That included the soon-to-expire May contract topping off at C$900 per tonne before settling a little lower.

Profit-taking generated declines earlier in today’s trading, but that gave way to positioning ahead of tomorrow’s planting projections from Statistics Canada. Market expectations range from 21.5 million acres to 23.2 million, compared to the 20.8 million seeded last year. Dry conditions across the Prairies and strong prices for other commodities could temper the amount of canola that goes into the ground this spring.

Another day of sharp increases in the Chicago soy complex provided support for canola. There were declines in Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed.

A significant jump the Canadian dollar attempted to stymie further gains in canola. At mid-afternoon, the loonie was at 80.58 compared to Friday’s close of 80.07.

There were 14,754 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 23,485 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 7,936 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola May 894.40 up 19.20
Jul 840.00 up 15.80
Nov 698.40 up 5.90
Jan 695.80 up 6.40

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Monday, benefitting from a sharp uptick in corn prices.

The United States Department of Agriculture reported a private sale of 120,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations, with delivery to be during the 2021/22 marketing year.

The USDA is scheduled to issue its weekly crop progress report today at 3 pm Central. Below normal temperatures along with scattered rain/snow showers have delayed the planting of all crops. In areas where the weather has not been an issue, planting has proceeded at a strong pace. The trade predicted soybeans planted to be at eight per cent complete up from three the previous week.

In the department’s weekly export inspections report, about 1.95 million tonnes of soybeans were shipped as of the week ended April 22. That’s a 25 per jump from the previous week and above market expectations. The year-to-date shipments climbed to 55.27 million tonnes, and are 65.5 per cent ahead of exports the same time in 2019/20.

There will be higher up limit gains for the Chicago soy complex on May 3. The up limit for soybeans goes from 70 cents per bushel to US$1/bu. That for soyoil is rising from 2.5 cents per pound to 3.5 cents/lb. The limit for soymeal goes from US$25 per tonne to US$35/tonne.

CORN futures were also stronger on Monday, due to concerns over production in Brazil.

Newly emerged estimates have drastically cut Brazil’s corn production at 90 million to 95 million tonnes, as drought has severely affected the safrinha crop. The USDA’s most recent estimate called for 109 million tonnes.

The trade pegged U.S. corn planted at 17 per cent finished versus eight per cent a week ago.

Corn export inspections topped 1.95 million tonnes, up 25 per cent from the previous week. The year-to-date was 41.23 million tonnes, almost 84 per cent ahead of exports a year ago.

The CBOT up limit for corn is scheduled to rise by 15 cents at 40 cents/bu.

The South African Crop Estimate Committee forecast a seven per cent increase in corn acres for the upcoming year. Production has been estimated to rise nearly 6.9 per cent in 2021/22 at 16.35 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures were significantly higher on Monday, caught up in the spillover from corn and soybeans.

Wheat planted is projected to come in at 28 per cent done, up from 19 per cent finished last week.

Export inspections of wheat were about 564,000 tonnes for a decline of 10 per cent from last week. At a smidge below 22.6 million tonnes, the year to date is 0.4 per cent ahead of this time last year.

The new up limit for Kansas City and Chicago wheat is to gain a nickel at 45 cents/bu.

The Western Producer

Позначки:USDA