World’s Population Reaches 8 Billion

The demographic changes present major challenges to nations and the UN urged countries with aging populations to adapt their public programs to address the issue, including improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems, establishing universal health care and setting up long-term care systems.

CONTRA

Though the human population is still climbing, growth is slowing. Humanity passed the 7 billion milestone in 2011 and the UN estimates it will not reach 9 billion until 2037, 15 years from now. Birth rates have fallen across much of the world—numerous factors can help explain this, including increased access to contraception, the aging population, better education and progress protecting the rights of women and children—and in many countries, fertility rates have already fallen well below what is needed to maintain the size of the population. Today, the UN estimates around two-thirds of the global population live in a country of area where birth rates aren’t sufficient to maintain the population size and some 61 countries or areas are projected to decrease by 1% or more by 2050 (emigration, as well as falling fertility rates, is also a factor here). By 2050, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine are all projected to face losses of 20% or more, the UN said.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

India is slated to overtake China as the world’s most populous country at some point during 2023, the UN estimated. India and China are currently home to around 1.39 billion and 1.41 billion people, respectively, each more than four times the U.S., the world’s third most populous country. The UN projects India and China will remain the world’s first and second largest population hubs, though China is expected to face a precipitous drop in its population, halving its current value by the end of the century. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa, meanwhile, are expected to keep growing throughout 2100.

SURPRISING FACT

By 2050, the U.S. will no longer be the world’s third most populous country, the UN estimates. It will sit in fourth place behind Nigeria with around 375 million people, the agency projected. By 2080, it will have been overtaken by Pakistan and the UN estimates that by 2100 it will sit at sixth place behind the DRC.

THE FULL LIST

According to UN models, the world’s ten most populous countries will change over the course of the century.

2022

1. China
2. India
3. U.S.
4. Indonesia
5. Pakistan
6. Nigeria
7. Brazil
8. Bangladesh
9. Russia
10. Mexico

2050

1. India
2. China
3. Nigeria
4. U.S.
5. Pakistan
6. Indonesia
7. Brazil
8. DRC
9. Ethiopia
10. Bangladesh

2100

1. India
2. China
3. Nigeria
4. Pakistan
5. DRC
6. U.S.
7. Ethiopia
8. Indonesia
9. Tanzania
10. Egypt

TANGENT

The Covid-19 pandemic “has affected all components of population change, including fertility, mortality and migration,” the UN report said. Global life expectancy fell to 71 years in 2021, the UN said, down from nearly 73 in 2019, largely due to the impact of the pandemic. The impact was varied across regions and countries and the effect on fertility levels mixed, the UN noted, though restrictions severely curtailed all forms of migration.

WHAT WE DON’T KNOW

It is impossible to know precisely how many people are alive at any given moment. The UN’s figures are based on models designed using census and other demographic data. Most forecasts suggest the global population will decline in the latter half of the century, though the further out forecasts go the less reliable their predictions are. Experts don’t agree on the upper bounds Earth places on humanity’s existence, but many place sustainable limits many billions below current levels if our patterns of consumption and resource are to remain the same.