World’s durum durum wheat harvest will be big, but passions are simmering

Canadian farmers planted 6.34 million acres (2.57 million hectares) of durum wheat, from which they will receive 5.66 million tons of harvest. Agriculture Canada’s forecast was published May 17 by The Western Producer.

GrainFox principal analyst Neil Townsend believes supplies could exceed 6.5 million tons if average yields remain consistent with the 2022-2023 season, which was 35.9 bushels per acre (24.12 quintals per hectare). Exports of durum could increase by one million tons.

In the US, durum took up 2.03 million acres (822,000 hectares), 21% more than a year ago. At the moment the crops are in very good condition.

Experts are wondering what to expect from Turkey this year. In the 20223-2024 season, the country shocked its competitors by selling about 1.5 million tons, disrupting the plans of other exporters.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts that Turkey will produce 4.4 million tons of durum in the upcoming 2024-2025 season, 10% more than in the previous season. Some experts put the number at 4.7 million tons.

USDA estimates the volume of Turkish exports at 2 million tons of durum. Much depends on Turkey’s export policy. “If a reason could be found for Turkey to refuse to export, then Canada would be in a good position,” Townsend reasoned.

North Africa will get its lowest wheat crop since the 2016-2017 season. The USDA forecasts production in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia at 6.6 million tons.

The situation in Morocco is particularly bleak. The future crop is estimated at 2.5 million tons. In a good year, the country produces between seven and eight million tons of durum wheat.

“A severe lack of rainfall since planting in the central and southern growing regions has worsened the crop outlook,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report on global agricultural production. Yields are expected to be 39% below the five-year average.

Tunisia is forecast to produce 1.1 million tons of durum, 2.6% above the five-year average.

The Canadian Grains Commission reported that Algeria was the largest buyer of Canadian durum during the first eight months of the 2023-2024 season, purchasing 677,600 tons. Morocco came in second with 536,300 tons. Rounding out the top three is Italy, which purchased 315,300 tons.

Italy will receive 3.4 million tons of durum due to reduced planted area and lower yields in Sicily, Puglia and Basilicata. This is 10% less than a year ago and 15% below the five-year average.

France is suffering from an excess of rain. As of May 6, 65% of crops were in good or excellent condition. A year ago, the figure was 88%.

In Mexico, the harvest will be down due to reduced durum wheat acreage, drought and low water supplies. Mexico’s harvest is expected to be 1.5 million tons. A year ago, Mexico had 1.9 million tons of durum.

russia is a wild card for canadian experts. According to Townsend, a year ago, Russia sent 300,000 to 400,000 tons of durum wheat to the EU. It is difficult to predict the current year’s harvest.

Tags: USA, Italy, Tunisia, Morocco, Russia, Turkey, EU, Canada, Mexico