World wheat prices fell on data on the harvest in the US and Russia

Despite the news of low yields in France, world wheat prices declined amid high harvest rates and good winter wheat yields in the US and Russia.

In the United States, as of July 7, winter wheat was harvested on 63% of the area (52% on average over 5 years), and the yield exceeds last year’s, and the number of spring wheat crops in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 3% to 75% (47% last year), which allows us to hope for a good harvest.

In 2024/25 MY (June), the U.S. exported 1.73 mln tonnes of wheat, up 13.7% from last year.

In the South of Russia, wheat is actively harvested, and as of July 3, 13.1 mln tonnes of the grain was harvested from 2.95 mln ha or 10% of the area, with the average yield of 4.4 t/ha. During the week, the yield decreased by 10%, but it is still 19% higher than the same date in 2023.

July wheat futures declined yesterday:

• by 3.6% to 203.2 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-0.2% for the week),
• by 3.9% to 210.7 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-3.2%),
• by 2.6% to 226.9 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+0.7%),
• by 3.2% to 221.25 €/t or 239.6 $/t – September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (-1.6%).

According to the forecast of the Intercereales group and the Arvalis Institute of crop production, in France, due to too wet weather, wheat yield in 2024 will decrease by 13% compared to last year to the lowest level since 2016 at 6.4 t/ha, which is 11% below the 10-year average. However, this news did not support prices for European wheat.

As of July 5, Ukraine harvested 1.62 mln tonnes of wheat with the yield of 3.36 t/ha (3.35 t/ha last year) from 482.2 thou hectares or 11% of the area, while in 2023 only 51.4 thou hectares or 1% of the area was threshed.

In 2024/25 MY (as of July 8), Ukraine exported 256 thsd tonnes of wheat, compared to 212 thsd tonnes in the same period last year.

Strong export demand keeps wheat prices high. For milling wheat with delivery to the Black Sea ports, the price is 8600-8900 UAH/t or 190-195 USD/t, and for feed wheat – 8000-8300 UAH/t or 175-180 USD/t.

The first data on the new harvest indicate possible problems with grain quality: in regions with high heat, there will be low nature, and with heavy precipitation at the beginning of the harvest – low protein.

Tags: wheat, USA, Russia, prices