World wheat prices are recovering after a fall, but in Ukraine they continue to fall

Purchase price of wheat in Ukraine continue to fall amid declining export demand and increased competition from Russia and other black sea countries, although world prices after falling to a 3-year low gradually recovered, and during the week rose by 1.4-3.4% on forecasts of reduced harvest in the EU.

In Ukraine, as of August 2, from 4,466 million hectares harvested 19,441 million tons of wheat with a yield of 4.35 t/ha, which corresponds to the July USDA forecast of 19.5 million tons.

During the week on CPT ports of the black sea prices for milling wheat fell by 1-2 $/t to 195-205 $/t or 9300-9600 UAH/t, and for feed wheat – by 1-3 $/t to 175-180 $/t or 8200-8300 UAH/t.

Exports of wheat from Ukraine for August 1-5 amounted to only 79 thousand tons (156 thousand tons for the same period last year), and in total in 2024/25 MY reached 1,517 (0,977) million tons.

September wheat futures yesterday rose:

• by 0.7% to 199,33 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+3.4% for the week, -5% for the month),
• by 0.2% to 206,32 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+2.3%, -2.7%),
• by 0.8% to 217.7 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+2%, -4.3%),
• by 1.1% to 218,25 €/t or 238,2 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+1.4%, -4.6%).

In the United States, as of August 4, winter wheat was harvested on 88% of the area (85% last year), and spring wheat – 6% (8% last year). In 2 months of 2024/25 MY, the country exported 3.539 mln tonnes of wheat, up 15.68% compared to last year.

The representative of FAS USDA in the EU lowered the forecast of wheat harvest in the EU in 2024/25 MY from 130 to 127.4 mln tonnes, which is 5.9% lower than in 2023/24 MY (134.9 mln tonnes) due to the decline in production in Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania, and especially in France to the lowest level since 1983 – 25 mln tonnes.

According to the European Commission, wheat exports from the EU for July 29 – August 4 decreased compared to the previous week by 14% to 265 thousand tons, and in General in the season reached 2.18 million tons, which is 39% lower than last year.

In July, Russia exported (including to the EAEU countries) 3.6 mln tonnes of wheat, which is less than 5 mln tonnes in July 2023, but 0.5 mln tonnes higher than the 5-year average (3.1 mln tonnes).

Egyptian GASC on August 12 will hold an international tender for the purchase of 3.8 million tons of wheat on FOB basis with payment in 270 days, which can significantly support world wheat prices.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat