World production of oilseeds in 2023/24 MY will grow by 4% – FAO forecast
Global oilseeds production is expected to continue to grow in 2023/24 MY and reach a new record high, mainly reflecting higher forecasts for soybean and sunflower, more than offsetting the expected decline in rapeseed production.
The expected increase in soybean production is primarily driven by expectations of a significant recovery in Argentina and further expansion in Brazil, provided that weather conditions in both countries are normal. On the other hand, soybean production in the United States is likely to decline for the second consecutive season due to a reduction in planted areas.
Meanwhile, global sunflower seed production is projected to increase significantly compared to the previous season, mainly due to favorable growing conditions in the Black Sea region and Europe. On the contrary, global rapeseed production is expected to decline from the record high level recorded in 2022/23 due to the expected shortfall in Australia and Canada amid unfavorable weather conditions.
As for palm oil, production in both Indonesia and Malaysia is projected to increase, but only slightly due to expectations of lower than potential yields.
Global consumption of oils/fats in 2023/24 MY is projected to increase by 2.5 percent compared to the previous season, driven by expected growth in food consumption and robust demand from biodiesel, particularly in the United States. Meanwhile, global consumption of meals is forecast to grow by 3.1 percent, driven by expected production growth, which coincides with expected steady consumption growth in the feed industry. In 2023/24 MY, international trade in both oilseeds and meals is forecast to remain flat, with major importing countries expected to be well supplied from their purchases in the previous season.
Given that global production of oils and fats is expected to narrowly fall short of expected consumption in 2023/24 MY, global carry-over stocks of oils and fats are projected to decline slightly below their initial level, while remaining above the average level in recent years. As for meal, global ending stocks are forecast to continue to rise to a four-year high, mainly due to an expected increase in production. In line with these fundamentals, global oil prices continued to decline after reaching record highs in March 2022. Global meal prices also declined in recent months after a temporary increase in early 2023.
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