World prices for rapeseed are falling, but demand for it remains high in Ukraine

Under pressure from increased supply from European producers and falling prices for soybeans, February canola futures on the Paris MATIF during the week fell by 2.8% to 414,25 €/t (-2.4% for the month), but due to the strengthening of the Euro, dollar prices fell by 3.5% to 445,3 $/t.

March futures for canola on the Winnipeg stock exchange for the week fell by 1.8% to 598 CAD/t or 443 $/t (-3% for the month).

In Ukraine, the price of rapeseed in the ports of the black sea remain at a high level 370-380 $/t or 16300-16600 UAH/t, as traders need to buy shipments amid a shortage of supply from manufacturers. the Number of traders who buy rapeseed is decreasing, so in the near future the prices will also decline.

Demand prices for deliveries to Germany and the Czech Republic remained at 400-410 €/t DAP during the week, so deliveries towards the western border are very limited.

According to the forecast of Strategie Grains, the EU will harvest 18.4 mln tonnes of rapeseed in 2024/25 MY, which is 1.4 mln tonnes down from the previous season, as the rapeseed planting areas will decrease by 0.36 mln hectares to 5.6 mln hectares.

The markets have not yet reacted to the forecasts of a reduction in rapeseed production in the EU in the new season, so forward prices for rapeseed in Ukraine remain at 385 €/t DAP Germany, although August futures are trading at 413.25 €/t, as well as March.

Traders are waiting for a new USDA report, which may be adjusted crop estimates in Brazil, which will stop the fall in prices for soybeans and canola, although it will not lead to their active growth.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, rapeseed