World grain production forecast cut by 2 million tonnes

The International Grains Council (IGC) decreased its world grain production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year by 2 million tonnes to 2.29 billion tonnes, which it said reflected recent dry weather.

The forecast remained above the 2022-23 marketing year when total grains production fell 39 million tonnes to 2.25 billion tonnes, with the rebound in current marketing year production driven by a projected larger corn crop.

The IGC raised their 2023-24 total grains consumption projection month-on-month by 4 million tonnes to 2.31 billion tonnes, driven by a large month-on-month increase in projected wheat consumption.

The report projects carryover stocks to fall further to 577 million tonnes from 580 million tonnes in the last report due to increased global consumption.

The grains trade projection for 2023-24 was raised unchanged from the previous update at 408 million tonnes, down 3 million tonnes year-on-year.

The corn production forecast was cut by 6 million tonnes to 1.21 billion tonnes, marking a 58 million tonnes increase year-on-year, while the consumption estimate was also cut by 6 million tonnes to 1.2 billion tonnes.

The IGC raised the wheat production projection for 2023-24 by 3 million tonnes from the previous report to 786 million tonnes, a 17 million tonnes decrease from the previous year, while wheat consumption forecasts were increased by 8 million tonnes from the last forecast to 803 million tonnes.

The wheat trade projection was set at 197 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from the May report but down 6 million tonnes from last year.

In terms of oilseeds, the soybean production projection was cut by 1 million mt from the last update to 402 million tonnes.

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The soybean consumption projection for 2023-24 was unchanged from the last report at 389 million tonnes, marking a 27 million tonnes increase from 2022-23.

Finally, the soybeans trade forecast was decreased by 1 million tonnes from the previous report to 172 million tonnes but still 4 million tonnes higher the last year’s figure.

Tags: wheat, crop, forecast, dry weather, consumption, projection, International Grains Council, corn, world grain production, IGC, trade, soybeans