Wheat up 18¢ this morning. Monday, May 13, 2024

July corn is up 4¢ this morning.

July soybeans are up 5¢.

CBOT wheat is up 18¢. KC wheat is up 20¼¢. Minneapolis wheat is up 17½¢.

“Small crops get smaller, and Russia’s wheat crop is getting smaller,” says Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX. “Back-to-back bumper crops enabled Russia to export record quantities of wheat at cheap prices over the past couple of years, setting the tone for the world wheat market. Major exporter supplies outside of Russia and the United States have been relatively tight through that period, but it didn’t matter much to the markets, since Russia had plenty of wheat to export at cheap prices. That looked to be the case until/unless supplies from Russia would be threatened. That may be the case this year.

“It’s still quite early, and there is plenty of time for today’s numbers to change in either direction. But we know that the southern half of Russia is having a dry spring. Recent showers narrowed the area under immediate stress to perhaps one-third of the belt, but the overall pattern is still in place, and the next four to six weeks are critical for the crop’s development. Now it is also becoming apparent that recent frosts did more damage to Russia’s winter wheat crop than previously reported as well, adding to its production woes.”

He notes a few recent estimates for Russia’s 2024/2025 wheat crop that range from 86 to 89.6 million metric tons. In comparison, the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report pegs the 2023/2024 crop year at 91.5 million metric tons.

Live cattle are up 75¢ this morning. Feeder cattle are up $2.50. Lean hogs are up 75¢.

Crude oil is up 90¢.

S&P 500 futures are up 7 points. Dow futures are up 98 points.

Outside of the U.S., milling what is up on the MATIF exchange. Corn and soybeans are down on the Dalian exchange.

Tags: corn, soybeans, wheat, futures, live cattle, feeder cattle, lean hogs