Wheat quotations on world exchanges fell by 3-6.6% in a week

World wheat prices continue to fall under the pressure of significant stocks and low export rates from the USA and the EU, as well as forecasts of increased exports of cheap wheat from Ukraine and the Russian Federation. During the week, quotations in Chicago fell by 6.6%, and in Europe – by 3% (-5.5% for the month).

Against the backdrop of improved conditions for winter crops and low export rates from the US, traders actively sold wheat futures ahead of the long weekend in the US, where President’s Day will be celebrated on Monday.

According to the USDA, wheat exports from the United States in FY 2023/24 amounted to 11.5 million tons, which is 11% lower than last year’s pace, although the volume of export sales is 17.6 million tons, compared with 16.5 million tons in the same period last year.

March wheat futures fell on Friday:

• by 1.1% to $205.9/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-6.6% for the week),
• by 1.5% to $208.4/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-6%)
• by 0.5% to $240.6/t – for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-4.6%).

At the same time, wheat futures on the Paris Euronext rose by 1.3% to €203.25/t or $213.7/t (-3%).

According to the European Commission, in the 2023/24 financial year as of February 2, EU countries reduced exports of soft wheat compared to the corresponding period last year by 8% to 18.6 million tons, of which France shipped 4.6 million tons, Romania – 4.5 million tons, Poland – 2.5 million tons, Lithuania – 1.8 million tons, Latvia – 1.4 million tons, Germany – 1.7 million tons, Bulgaria – 1.7 million tons. At the same time, wheat imports to Compared to the previous season, the EU grew by 3% to 5.7 million tons, of which 68% or 3.9 million tons were supplied by Ukraine.

Prices for European wheat are supported by the deterioration of crops in France. According to FranceAgriMer, as of February 12, 68% of common wheat crops there were in good or excellent condition (93% last year), the worst figure since 2020, when crops were hit by heavy rains. According to estimates of the MSG of the country, the area of sowing of soft wheat will decrease in comparison with last year by more than 7%, which will be the second lowest indicator of the last 30 years.

Tags: prices, wheat, USA, Ukraine, Russia, EU