Wheat quotations on world exchanges fell by 2.3-4.2%

Against the background of the transition from March to May contracts, traders actively closed short and opened long positions in wheat, which led to a decrease in prices on Friday by 2.3-4.2%, and in general for the week – by 0.3-7. 2%, with European wheat falling in price the most.

March wheat futures on Euronext fell by €6.25/t on Friday to the lowest level since August 2020 at €184.5/t.

May futures also fell:

• by 3.4% to $204.9/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-2.8% for the week),
• by 4.2% to $207.4/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-0.7%)
• by 2.4% to $236.5/t – for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+0.3%).
• by 2.3% to €191.5/t or $207.7/t – wheat futures on Paris Euronext (-7.6%).

Even a downgrading of the EU crop forecast and a worsening crop condition in France did not keep European wheat prices from falling.

The European Commission lowered the forecast for the production of soft wheat in the EU in 2023/24 MY by 284 thousand tons to 125.621 million tons, which will correspond to last year’s and average 5-year indicators. The forecast of ending stocks was increased by 209,000 tons to 19.3 million tons compared to January estimates.

According to FranceAgriMer, in France during the week of February 19-25, the number of soft wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased from 69% to 68% (95% last year), and durum wheat remained at the level of 74% (91% last year). 91% of the planned areas were sown with spring wheat in the country (97% last year), as heavy rains delayed sowing, although they improved the condition of the crops.

Export sales of wheat from the USA for February 16-22 increased compared to the previous week by 40% to 327.3 thousand tons, and in total in the season reached 18.16 million tons, which is 6% higher than last year’s pace.

Wheat exports from the Russian Federation, according to SovEkon estimates, amounted to 3.8 million tons in February (3 million tons in February 2023), and in general in the season it may reach 48.6 million tons, although the USDA estimates it at 51 million tons.

Against the backdrop of low wheat prices, Ukraine is accelerating its exports, and in February it shipped 2.55 million tons (59% more than in February 2023, and a total of 11.77 million tons in the season, which is 3.8% more than last year pace

Large stocks of wheat and the willingness of farmers to sell fodder grain at $145-150/ton with delivery to the port will allow to export another 3-4 million tons of wheat by the end of the season and exceed the USDA forecast of 15 million tons. Currently, about 100 are nominated for entry into the ports of Ukraine ships that will export about 3 million tons of grain in the coming weeks.

Tags: prices, wheat