Wheat quotations for the week increased by 1.4-2.3% amid lower crop forecasts in the EU

Wheat quotations on world markets remain under pressure from low demand and large stocks, however, active purchases of futures by funds last week and lower crop forecasts in the EU supported prices, which had previously fallen by 5-6%.

Experts of Refinitiv Commodities Research lowered the forecast of soft wheat production in the EU in 2024/25 MY by 1.3 mln tonnes to 123.2 mln tonnes (125.8 mln tonnes last year) and durum wheat production by 0.2 mln tonnes to 7.5 mln tonnes (7.5 mln tonnes last year) compared to the previous estimates. The revision of the forecasts was caused by the decrease in the official estimates of wheat planting areas in France.

At the same time, the increase in precipitation intensity in most of Europe improves soil moisture and the prospects for the European wheat crop.

On Friday, the March wheat futures fell:

• by 1.7% to 210.7 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+2.3% for the week),
• 0.9% to 209 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+0.3%),
• 1.5% to 235,7 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+2%).
• by 0.7% to 206 €/t or 222.8 $/t – wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (+1.4%).

Pressure on prices also increase precipitation forecasts in all regions of winter wheat production in the United States and the EU.

Today’s USDA report is likely to show an improvement in the condition of wheat crops in the United States.

On the physical market, prices are falling amid declining prices for Russian wheat with a protein of 12.5% to 218-224 $/t FOB, the lowest level since September 2020. Prices are under pressure from favorable weather for winter wheat crops in Russia and weakening government price controls.

After the Russian grain, French wheat with protein 11% fell to 220-224 $/t FOB, which is 21-25 $/t lower than the price level in early January.

the Directorate of food of Bangladesh (DGF) has completed acceptance of applications for participation in the international tender for the purchase of 50 thousand tons of milling wheat of arbitrary origin.

The following companies submitted wheat offers for the tender:

• Grainflower – 279.95 $/t (for a batch of Russian wheat),
• Cereal Crops – $285/t,
• MC Food – 288.18 $/t,
• Agrocorp – 288.39 $/t,
• Aditya Birla – 297.6 $/t.

Tags: wheat, prices