Wheat production in Kazakhstan will recover in MY 2024/25

Kazakhstan’s wheat production is expected to recover in 2024-25 as higher soil moisture increase yields, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

With ongoing price pressure from Russia, the government of Kazakhstan extended import restrictions on wheat from the Eurasian Economic Union by another six months, starting April 12.

Wheat harvested area is estimated at 13.2 million hectares and production at 15.8 million tonnes, based on early-in-the-year reports from grain producers. Production in 2023-24 is estimated at 12.1 million tonnes.

Extensive rains in the fall of last year as well as above-average snow precipitation in the winter have created favorable moisture levels, the FAS said.

Flooding in certain parts of Kazakhstan had less of an impact on row crops as most wheat fields are protected by dikes. The floods did damage some grain storage facilities and other infrastructure, the FAS said.

Wheat exports in 2024-25 are estimated at 11.1 million tonnes based on the improved production outlook. The country continues to expand trade with China and reached an agreement to ship 200,000 tonnes of various agricultural commodities, including wheat, barley, flax, rapeseed, oats, sunflower, peas, lentils, rye, and other crops, the FAS said.

“There are some indications that rail stations, customs and quarantine are struggling to keep up with the increased volume,” the FAS said.

From September to February 2023-24, Kazakhstan exported 4.1 million tonnes of wheat and wheat flour, a 20% decrease from the same period last marketing year. Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan remained the top three buyers of Kazakhstani wheat and wheat flour.

Wheat exports to Uzbekistan were reported at 1.8 million tonnes, a decrease of 18% compared with the same period the prior marketing year. Afghanistan was the second largest importer at 889,000 tonnes, a decrease of 36%. Tajikistan imported 615,000 tonnes, a decrease of 5%.

Exports to China are reported at 254,000 tonnes, a seven-fold increase from the same period last year. Traders said the increase is due to Chinese buyers’ interest in importing feed-quality wheat.

Tags: wheat, crop forecast, Kazakhstan