Wheat prices on the stock exchanges again fell by 2.5-6% over the week, completely offsetting the growth since the beginning of May

Amid active harvesting of winter wheat, favorable conditions for sowing and development of spring wheat in the United States, as well as forecasts of precipitation in eastern and central Ukraine and southwestern Russia, wheat prices on world exchanges continued to decline. During the week, quotations fell by 2.5-6%, and for the two weeks of June, quotations fell in the US by 10.7-12.5% and in Paris by 9.4%.

on Friday, the July wheat futures decreased:

– by 1.2% to 224,9 $/t for SRW-wheat in Chicago (-2.5% for the week),
– by 1.5% to 230.6 $/t for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-6%),
– by 1.8% to 240.9 $/t for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-5.9%),
– by 0.7% to 236.75 €/t or 253 $/t for September wheat futures on Euronext in Paris (-3%).

Amid the rapid growth of wheat prices on the stock exchanges, Russian exporters again won, as they continued to increase wheat exports in June, as the spread between French and Russian wheat reached $25/t, which contributed to the growth of demand for Russian wheat. SovEcon analytical center forecasts that Russian wheat exports in June will total 3.5-4.0 mln tons, compared to 3.6 mln tons a year earlier and 1.6 mln tons on average.

With the start of the new harvest, sellers from the US and the EU will again face lower demand for wheat and aggressive export policies from Russia. Turkey’s decision to suspend wheat imports from June 21 to October 15, 2024 will reduce the demand for Russian wheat, and the new Indian Agriculture Minister confirmed that the government will not cancel the duties on wheat imports to support its own farmers.

Growth in production forecasts in Australia and Argentina amid favorable conditions for sowing also put pressure on the quotes.

Rosario Grain Exchange raised its forecast for the wheat harvest in Argentina in 2024/25 MY to 21 mln tonnes against 15.85 mln tonnes this season, which is close to the record of 22.15 mln tonnes set in 2021/22 season, due to the increase in acreage to a record 6.92 mln hectares due to the need for crop rotation in the Central and Northern parts of the country.

Tags: prices, wheat