Wheat prices in Ukraine are rising, despite the decline in world prices

After the rapid rise in world wheat prices by 6.2-11.2% over the past two weeks, traders started to take profits, and the quotes fell by 0.6-2.3%. The market is influenced by weather factors: frosts in Europe and the United States, as well as favorable weather for sowing.

July futures for wheat of the new harvest yesterday fell:

• by 2.3% to 223.6 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+3.6% for the week, +7.3% for two weeks),
• by 0.6% to 239 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+8%, +11.6%),
• by 2.3% to 230 €/t or 246.2 $/t – September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (+3.1%, +6.2%).

At the same time, futures for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis increased by 0.6% to 261 $/t (+7.2%, +10.2%).

According to the NASS USDA, in the United States the number of crops of winter wheat in good or excellent condition during 21-27 April decreased by 1% to 49% (28% last year), and spring wheat has already planted 34% of the planned area (10% last year and 19% on average for 5 years).

Wheat Exports from the United States for 19-25 April increased compared to the previous week by 6.85% to 481,2 thousand tons, and in General in the season reached 16,921 million tons, which is 7.32% lower than last year.

FranceAgriMer monitoring showed that in France the number of soft wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 1% to 63% (94% last year), which is the worst indicator of the last 4 years.

In Ukraine, amid rising export prices, processors also significantly increased their purchase prices as demand for flour increased in the run-up to Easter. Export prices for feed wheat increased by 100-200 UAH/t to 7000-7300 UAH/t or 160-165 USD/t over the week, and for milling wheat – only by 50-100 UAH/t to 7800-7950 UAH/t or 175-178 USD/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports. At the same time, processors raised the prices of wheat of 2 and 3 classes by 200-400 UAH/t to 7300-7800 UAH/t with delivery to the mill.

Forecasted precipitation and cold snap in the United States, Ukraine and Russia, as well as a decrease in rainfall in Europe will have a positive impact on spring and winter crops, which, against the background of significant carryover stocks of wheat in the EU and Russia will increase pressure on the prices of the new crop, which are now 5-20 $/t higher than the prices of the old crop.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, EU, France, wheat, USA