Wheat prices finish strong. Thursday, May 5, 2022

Wheat futures put in another strong rally today, which helped the corn and soybean markets close higher as well.

July corn closed 3¢ higher today at $7.97. December corn closed up 2¢ at $7.38. July soybean futures closed up 6¢ at $16.40, while the November contract closed 5¢ higher. Wheat futures closed sharply higher with CBOT wheat closing up 30¢, KC wheat up 53¢, and Minneapolis up 29¢.

The May USDA Supply/Demand report is one week from today. This is a very important report, which will include the first Supply/Demand projections for 2022-2023 crops.

Here are some key numbers I will be watching.

1. What will they use for corn and soybean yields?
2. Will they ramp up corn and wheat exports because of the Russian war?
3. What will they use for global corn and wheat production estimates because of the war and the extreme drought in India?
4. What will be the initial estimates of U.S. ending stocks at the end of the marketing year?

Today, the outside markets were viewed as negative for the grain markets, so it is amazing that the grain markets still closed higher. The U.S. dollar closed sharply higher, crude oil closed up 65¢ per barrel, and the stock market moved sharply lower with the Dow down over 1,000 points. Now that the Golden Week holiday is over in Europe, I hope to see some large export sales announced tomorrow morning.

In the livestock markets on Thursday, June Hogs closed up $1.97 at $107.07, June Cattle closed down $1.05 at $133.77, and August Feeders closed down $1.82 at $174.37.

Wheat prices continue to rally with soybeans trading higher as well. Corn futures are slightly lower.

Exports were good for corn, a little disappointing for soybeans, and very disappointing for wheat. The weather forecasts keep it dry in the southern Plains and today’s forecast for the Corn Belt and Delta is warmer and drier than yesterday.

The outside markets are negative for the grain markets. The Dow has given up yesterday’s 900-point gain. At this time, the Dow is down over 1,000 points and having the worst day since October of 2020. The U.S. dollar is up over 1%. Today is what I call a “risk-off” day, with funds light sellers in all of the grain markets.

July corn is down 1¢, with December down 2¢, July soybeans are 10¢ higher, with November soybeans 3¢ higher. July CBOT wheat is 20¢ higher; KC wheat is up 30¢, and Minneapolis wheat is 14¢ higher.

Crude oil traded as much as $4.00 a barrel higher is now up just 30¢ per barrel. The strength in the U.S. dollar is a long-term concern and it may be starting to impact our U.S. wheat exports.

The Dow is down 1,002 points (3%) at this time, and it seems like when the Dow moves down more than 2% it is tough – but not impossible – for the grain markets to rally.

The grain markets are higher after a steady to lower start last night. Crude oil is higher again today, trading above the $110 benchmark.

The USDA Export sales report today showed corn exports of 30.8 million bushels of old-crop and 29 million acres of new-crop corn. This is right at trade estimates, and it is worth noting that new-crop corn exports now total 195 million bushels – the largest on record.

Soybean export sales were a little below trade estimates, with 27 million bushels of old-crop sales, and new-crop sales were reported at just 2.3 million bushels. Wheat sales were bust again at just 4.4 million bushels.

At this time, July corn is up 3¢, with December corn trading 1¢ higher. July soybeans are up 23¢, with November up 12¢. Wheat futures are 6¢ to 12¢ higher. The bull spreads continue to work in the corn and soybean markets.

In the outside markets crude oil is up $2.70 per barrel, the U.S. stock market is lower, giving back some of yesterday’s large gains. Livestock futures are mixed.

Author: Al Kluis

Tags: животноводство, soybean, hogs, wheat, cattle, futures, markets, corn, feeders, export, grain, prices