Wheat Is the New Fault Line for Ukraine in Europe

The European Union is rushing to appease enraged Eastern European farmers after Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria banned Ukrainian grain imports, contentious moves that threaten to undermine EU solidarity over Ukraine and compound pressures on already-vulnerable Ukrainian producers.

The breadbasket of Europe, Ukraine has for years exported vast quantities of grain through the Black Sea. But after Russia’s invasion disrupted those routes, the EU stepped in, removing tariffs and establishing solidarity lanes, or alternative land routes that would allow Ukrainian cereals to reach other countries by passing through Eastern Europe. Rather than just transiting those countries, however, cheap Ukrainian grain entered their markets, and stayed—sparking an uproar among local farmers.

Desperate to win the farmers’ favor, some right-wing leaders have moved to ban Ukrainian grain and score political points. Poland was the first domino to fall when it announced it would block imports of Ukrainian grain and other goods on Saturday; Hungary followed suit later the same day. On Monday and Wednesday, Slovakia and Bulgaria also adopted similar measures. As frustrations boil over, governments must ensure the pitchforks aren’t pointed at them.

“Super right-wing populist parties have always relied on farmers, and they haven’t done much for farmers at all in the last couple of years,” said Scott Reynolds Nelson, a historian at the University of Georgia and the author of Oceans of Grain: How American Wheat Remade the World. “Suddenly they’re trying to do something quick to get farmers on their side, and a very simple thing to do is to threaten to cut off” Ukrainian grain.

While falling prices are a serious problem for farmers, he added, “I do think that this is a cheap political gesture on the part of Poland and Hungary just to get more money out of the EU and to look good in front of farmers who are increasingly frustrated with all of these cheap goods.”

Russia tried to play the energy card to hive off Europe from Ukraine; that failed. But the grains play might just do what gas shortages couldn’t.

“I think that Russia obviously understands that this is a major consequence of its blockade of the Black Sea,” said Caitlin Welsh, the director of the Global Food Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s not just about blocking Ukraine’s grains from being exported; it’s about reducing support for Ukraine within the EU.”

The influx of Ukrainian grain has been an especially explosive political issue for Warsaw, which has otherwise been a staunch supporter of Kyiv throughout the war. For weeks, Polish farmers have angrily protested the flood of Ukrainian grain and their resulting financial losses, questioning the quality of Kyiv’s goods and even threatening to “spoil” and “ruin” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent trip to Warsaw.

All the turmoil is because Russia disrupted the normal state of affairs with a multi-pronged invasion of Ukraine last February. Ukraine’s usual export routes from the Black Sea were for a time closed; even now they are tenuous.

“This is just one of the consequences of the war, in the sense that this isn’t where grain would normally be traded,” said Joseph Glauber, a former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture currently at the International Food Policy Research Institute. “If you’re a Ukraine exporter, you’re not typically selling it to other countries in Eastern Europe that have their own grain supplies. You’re selling it to places where there are grain deficits.”

With elections looming later this year, Poland’s Law and Justice Party (PiS) has been scrambling to placate its rural base and quickly shore up support. In early April, Polish Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk resigned as public frustration grew. To appease protesters, his successor has vowed to test the quality of Ukrainian grain imports.

After condemning the countries’ moves, the European Union is now working to end their bans and bring them back into the fold, announcing on Wednesday more than $100 million to compensate farmers and emergency “preventive measures” that would curb the entry of Ukrainian grain, unless it is set to be exported elsewhere. Warsaw, for now, also appears to have softened its stance, agreeing on Tuesday to end its ban as long as the transiting Ukrainian grain is completely monitored and traced, as well as transported in sealed convoys. 

Given “how quickly they backtracked, that demonstrates that they’ve realized how bad the look is not only toward Ukraine, but also toward Brussels,” said Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations.

These fractures come as uncertainty shrouds the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the breakthrough wartime agreement that has helped drag down global food prices by allowing some 24 million tons of grain to reach the world market since it was signed in July 2022. Russia has continuously threatened to withdraw from the agreement to extract other concessions, and Ukrainian officials recently warned that the fragile deal is at risk of “shutdown.”  The deadline to extend the latest deal is May 18.

If Eastern European countries press ahead with their import bans, experts warn that Ukrainian producers—already struggling to sell their grain and facing lower prices amid shipping challenges and delayed inspections—will be the ones who are hit the hardest.

“If those countries were to shut off any access out through the solidarity lanes, that would create even more problems within Ukraine in terms of lower prices,” Glauber said. Losing the solidarity lanes won’t necessarily mean that more grain can swiftly reach other markets through the Black Sea routes, either. “If you shut off one of them, it’s not like the other one can immediately just pick up,” he added.

Tags: Bulgaria, markets, grain, banned, EU, Black Sea Grain Initiative, prices, Poland, European Union, wheat, Black Sea, imports, Hungary, Ukraine, Slovakia