Wheat futures for the week rose by 1.4-6.2%, and for the month – by 4.8-19% against the background of drought in the USA

Traders took profits on Friday, so wheat futures were slightly lower, although overall they rose 1.4-6.2% for the week and 4.8-19% for the month amid heat and reduced production forecasts in the main exporting countries.

Exports of wheat from the USA for the week amounted to only 124 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 4.06 million tons, which is 23% lower than last year’s pace and increases the pressure on quotations.

July futures fell in price on Friday:

• by 0.7% to $269.4/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+6.2% for the week, +19% for the month),
• by 1.4% to $315.6/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+2.2% and +4.8%),
• by 1.8% to $317.7/t – for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+1.4% and 5.6%),
• by 0.2% to $237/t – for Black Sea wheat in Chicago (-0.5% and -8.4%),
• by 1.6% to €247/t or $269.4/t – September wheat futures on Paris Euronext (+3.5% and +11%).

According to FranceAgriMer monitoring data, the state of soft wheat crops in France has deteriorated for the fourth week in a row. During the week of May 12-18, the number of soft wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased compared to the previous week by 2% to 83% (64% last year), durum wheat – by 4% to 77% (60% last year). which is still the best performance for this period since 2011.

Last week’s rains in the EU and the US Great Plains will reduce stress on spring wheat crops, while heat in Kansas and Texas will speed up winter wheat harvest.

Experts of the Statistical Bureau of Canada, StatsCan, in a report published on June 28, predict an increase in the area of wheat sowing compared to the previous season by 5.1% to 26.5 million acres.

The USDA’s June 30 report on US crops will also have a significant impact on markets.

Wheat exports from Canada for the week of June 12-18 grew by 31% to 384,000 tons, and totaled 17.4 million tons in 2022/23 MR, which is 75% higher than the previous season.

In Ukraine, wheat exports continue mainly through the Danube ports, where prices for the week rose by $3-5/t to $175-177/t for food wheat. During June 1-15, 886,000 tons of wheat were exported, and in total in the season – 16.3 million tons, against the USDA forecast of 16 million tons, and by July 1, exports may reach 17 million tons.

Prigozhin’s rebellion on June 23-24 may lead to new rebellions or a change of power in the Russian Federation, which will affect the wheat market. Currently, the Russian Federation remains the main world exporter of wheat, and in 2022/23 the Russian Federation can supply 49 million tons of grain to foreign markets.

Tags: wheat, USA, Ukraine, Russia, EU, prices, France, Canada