Wheat exports to reach $ 2.8 billion, the highest level since 2012

The arrival of the last month of the year started the new marketing campaign of wheat and with it the Possibility of alleviating, at least in part, the exchange rate pressure due to the greater supply of foreign exchange.

The analysts estimate that the 2020/21 campaign could exceed US $ 2.8 billion in exportsthanks to the good international prices. If this scenario is confirmed, it would be the highest level in values ​​since 2012.

Strictly speaking, the severe drought that especially affected winter crops in the country, sowed doubts during the year about the impact that this could have on production and the exportable balance, however, a series of climatic factors also affected other big players globally triggered the rise in international cereal prices.

According to estimates from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) the average export price of wheat grain « is projected at US $ 259 per ton, increasing 30% compared to the previous season, » while an average price of wheat flour is projected at US $ 402 per ton , also determining an improvement of the order of 30% compared to the 2019/20 campaign.

But as is often the case, good prices are the other side of lower production. It is estimated that the climate does not fully accompany production in the United States and the Black Sea area (Russia, Ukraine, etc) next winter, impacting prices in a context of sustained demand.

In the case of Argentina production was also affected by the lack of rain. Specifically, for this campaign a volume of 16.7 million tons is expected, 15% less than the previous season when 19.5 million tons were totaled.

The final result of this harvest contrasts sharply with the 21/22 million forecast at the beginning of the season.

In a particularly dry season in the middle of winter, the arrival of the water had to wait almost until October, which there was an irreversible impact on returns.

The current average of 28.4 quintals per hectare represents a substantial decrease compared to the 29.9 quintals of the previous season and a noticeable drop compared to the 33.4 quintals of the 2016/17 campaign and well below the record of 36 quintals per ton reached in 2010/11.

On the other hand, a report from the Rosario Stock Exchange ensures that in recent years the profile of the demand for Argentine wheat has changed, Mercosur losing participation and turning towards Southeast Asia.

In the 2009/10 season, Mercosur accounted for 98.6%, then destinations on the African continent grew, such as Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, South Africa and Tanzania. But in the last three or four campaigns, the participation of Southeast Asian countries grew a lot like Indonesia, the world’s second largest wheat importer, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

After the signing of the Regional Integral Economic Association (RCEP, for its acronym in English) on November 15 between China, Japan, South Korea, together with the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) led by Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, new challenges are presented for Argentine wheat.

Is that Australia and New Zealand are part of the group and are large producers of wheat. « The implementation and development of the RCEP is certainly a central issue of interest for the Argentine wheat chain », given that « it will delimit the opportunities for placing merchandise in Southeast Asia, » indicated the Rosario Stock Exchange.

Despite this, he emphasized that «Australian exports will not be enough to fully supply RCEP.»

Explica

Tags: wheat exports