Western Australia’s wheat output to get a boost from sufficient rainfall

Western Australia’s wheat output for marketing year 2021-22 is likely to get a boost from promising yields amid sufficient rainfall in the state, the Grains Industry Association of Western Australia said in its latest report Dec. 17.

The province is likely to harvest 11.85 million mt of wheat in the MY 2021-22 (October-September), according to the latest estimates, up more than 6% from the association’s November output projection and 29% higher year on year.

Rains, however, have weighed on the protein content of the crop, the association said.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, meanwhile, pegged Western Australia’s wheat output at 11.7 million mt in its December quarterly report, up from 11.5 million mt in June.

ABARES also increased its estimate for Australia’s total MY 2021-22 output to 34.4 million mt, from 32.6 million mt.

Australia is one of the biggest wheat exporters, with Western Australia as the country’s second-largest wheat producing region.

The output in three of the four zones in Western Australia is expected to rise, according to the Grains Industry Association of Western Australia.

Wheat output in the Kwinana port zone is expected to increase by 200,000 mt from a prior projection to 5.8 million mt, while that in the Albany port zone is expected to reach 1.4 million mt, against 1.3 million mt, a month ago.

Geraldton port zone output is seen at 2.95 million mt, up from 2.6 million mt, a month ago, while Esperance port zone output is expected to remain steady at 1.7 million mt.

Peak harvest pressures prices

Australia’s wheat prices have been on the decline since early-December, as the harvest of the food grain peaked.

Kwinana FOB prices of Australian Premium White wheat fell $4 to $355/mt Dec. 16, according to S&P Global Platts assessment.

Traders expect the prices to recover over the near term amid tightening supplies from Russia, the US, and Canada. An expected decline in milling wheat output in Australia could also boost the prices of the grade, according to traders.

Weather outlook

Rain is likely to ebb in most parts of Western Australia over the next few weeks, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, with a 50% chance of below-average showers in the western and southern regions of the province.

A decline in showers may help improve the harvest’s pace.

The bureau also said there was an 80% chance of temperatures exceeding the average during January.

S&P Global Platts

Tags: Australia, wheat