WASDE maintains forecast for soybean oil use in biofuels production in 2024/25

The U.S. Department of Agriculture maintained its forecast for soybean oil use in biofuels production in 2024-25 in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Assessment, released Aug. 12. The soybean production forecast was revised upward.

The 2024-25 forecast for U.S. soybeans includes increases in production, exports, and ending stocks. The 2024-25 soybean production forecast is 4.6 billion bushels, up 154 ​​million due to higher acreage and yields. Harvested area is forecast at 86.3 million acres, up 1 million from July. The first survey soybean yield forecast is 53.2 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month.

Soybean supplies for 2024-25 are forecast at 4.9 billion bushels, up 11% from last year. With soybean exports rising 25 million bushels on higher supplies and unchanged crushing, ending stocks are forecast at 560 million bushels, up 125 million from last month.

USDA now expects 14 billion pounds of soybean oil to go to biofuels production in 2024-25, a forecast retained in the July WASDE. An estimated 12.9 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuels production in 2023-24, up from 12.491 billion pounds in 2022-23.

U.S. Seasonal Average Soybean Price for 2024-25 is forecast at $10.80 a bushel, down 30 cents from last month. Soybean meal is forecast at $320 a short ton, down $10. Soybean oil is forecast at 42 cents a pound.

World oilseed production in 2024-25 is raised 4.5 million tonnes to 690.5 million, driven by higher soybean and rapeseed output, partially offset by lower sunflowerseed, cottonseed, peanut, and palm kernel output. World soybean production in 2024-25 is raised 6.9 million tonnes to 428.7 million, driven by higher output in the United States, Ukraine, Russia, India, and Benin. Foreign production is revised up based on higher area forecasts from government reports. Global soybean exports are raised 1 million tonnes to 181.2 million, driven by higher exports to the US, Ukraine, Russia and Benin, partly offset by lower shipments to Argentina. Soybean imports are raised for Egypt, the EU, Iran and Turkey.

Global 2024-25 soybean ending stocks are raised 6.5 million tonnes to 134.3 million, driven mainly by higher stocks in China, the US and Argentina, partly offset by lower stocks in Brazil. It should be noted that the stock revisions for China and Brazil are driven by trade changes in 2023-24. China’s 2023-24 imports are raised to 111.5 million tonnes based on higher shipments by exporters. Brazil’s exports are raised to 105 million tonnes on the strong pace of shipments through July.

Tags: soybean oil