WASDE estimate for wheat ending stocks lowest since 2015-16

The USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report for August was released in the US on Friday, and has lowered the estimate for global ending stocks in 2023-24 by 900,000t to 265.6 million tonnes (Mt), the lowest since 2015-16.

In its monthly report, USDA’s global wheat outlook for 2023-24 is for reduced supplies, lower consumption, decreased trade, and lower stocks.

Supplies are projected to decline 4.3Mt tons to 1061.7Mt as reduced production for the European Union, China, and Canada only partially offset increases for Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

USDA’s estimate for EU wheat production has this month been cut 3Mt to 135Mt, primarily due to reductions for Spain, Lithuania, and Romania.

China is also down 3Mt to 137Mt, based on the National Bureau of Statistics summer-grain production forecast, while the estimate for Canada’s crop has dropped 2Mt to 33Mt on worsening drought conditions in the Prairie Provinces.

Ukraine’s production estimate is up 3.5Mt to 21Mt on higher area harvested and yields, with the forecast yield the second highest on record.

Kazakhstan is raised 1Mt to 15Mt on higher area reported by Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics.

Global consumption is reduced 3.4Mt to 796.1Mt, mainly on lower feed and residual use for the EU and reduced food, seed, and industrial use by China.

World trade is decreased 2.2Mt to 209.4Mt on reduced exports by Canada, down 2Mt on the July estimate to 24.5Mt, and the US, down 1Mt to 19Mt.

Despite higher production, Ukraine’s exports are unchanged at 10.5Mt as expired Black Sea Grain Initiative stymies volume.

Among the world’s major exporters, the estimate for Russia’s wheat exports is up 500,000t over the month to 48Mt.

Among the major importers, both Indonesia and Turkey are down 500,000t to 10.5Mt and 9.5Mt respectively.

Indonesia’s drop is attributed to lower feed and industrial use, while Turkey’s is due to its own larger crop and carry-in.

Australia’s 2023-24 production and export estimates are unchanged from last month at 29Mt and 21.5Mt respectively.

Tags: forecast, USDA, supplies, estimate, consumption, trade, global ending stocks, Canada, Outlook, European Union, Production, Ukraine, wheat, China, drought, exports, yields, Kazakhstan