USDA revises 2023-24 corn yield estimate; output increases

The US Department of Agriculture has revised the corn yield estimate for the marketing year 2023-24 (September-August) to 177.5 bushels/acre from 181.5 bu/acre, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report July 12.

US corn production for MY 2023-24 is forecast 55 million bushels higher, while corn beginning stocks are 50 million bushels lower, the USDA said in its latest report.

This is the first time USDA has revised its June-July yield forecast since 2012. This is largely because of a dry June start to crop development in much of the US Corn Belt, which has trimmed the top end of yield potential, according to analysts.

The USDA has made no change to import and export projections, which stand at 25 million bushels and 2.1 billion bushels, respectively.

In all, the USDA has raised the 2023-24 US corn ending stocks estimate by 5 million bushels to 2.262 billion bushels. This is 860 million bushels above year-on-year estimates.

The domestic total remains unchanged at 12.385 billion bushels, still above last year’s 12.080 billion bushels.

The USDA made no revision to the average farm price, which stands at $4.80/bu, but is still below the previous year’s $6.60/bu.
Beyond the US

The latest WASDE report estimates Brazil’s production for the MY 2023-24 at 129 million mt, below last year’s 133 million mt. While imports are estimated at 1.20 million mt, exports are at 55 million mt.

Similarly, for Argentina, overall production for MY 2023-24 was estimated at 54 million mt, significantly above the previous year’s 34 million mt. Imports are projected at 0.01 million mt, while exports are at 40.50 million mt.

In the 2023-24 projections for Ukraine, overall production stood at 25 million mt, down by 2 million from last year. Export projections dropped from the previous year’s 28 million mt to 19.50 million mt, possibly amid rising uncertainties over the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

In the USDA report, the projections for China for the marketing year 2023-24 stood at 280 million mt for production, up from last year’s 277.20 million mt. Additionally, overall imports were projected at 23 million mt from last year’s 18 million mt.

Tags: USDA, export, price, estimate, Production, forecast, yield, stocks, импорт, corn