USDA representative in Ukraine raised the forecast of corn production to 30.7 million tons

On October 24, the USDA Kyiv office released a report forecasting an increase in corn production in Ukraine in 2023/24 MY compared to the previous season. Initial stocks of corn and wheat in Ukraine are higher than last year, so export volumes will determine the final stocks of the 2023/24 season. Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023 complicated Ukraine’s grain exports, but efforts are ongoing to expand alternative supply routes.

Currently, in 2023/24 MY Ukraine is expected to harvest 30.7 mln tonnes of corn, which is 17% higher than in 2022/23 MY and 10% higher than USDA’s October forecast of 28 mln tonnes.

As of October 20, due to dry and warm weather in Ukraine, 9.28 mln tonnes of corn were harvested from 1.376 mln ha or 34% of the area, yielding 6.74 t/ha, while last year on this date 20% of the area was harvested and the yield was 5.4 t/ha.

Amid limited supply and increased activity of ships in ports for loading the price of corn in the ports of the black sea after falling last week again rose to 125-130 $/t or 5000-5200 UAH/t, while in the ports of the Danube they reach 135-140 $/t.

Ukrainian corn remains the cheapest on the world market, so will continue to be in demand. However, the growth of prices for it will be limited, as world prices will remain under pressure from the record global harvest.

Thus, during the week, December corn futures in Chicago fell by 3.3% to 189 $/t (0% for the month), and November futures on the Paris stock exchange – by 1.9% to 202.5 €/t or 213.5 $/t (-4.2% for the month).

Tags: Ukraine, corn, USDA Report, crop forecast