USDA representative in Canada predicts increase in grain production in 2024/25 MY

According to the USDA estimates, Canada in 2024/25 MY will increase grain production (wheat, durum, barley, corn and oats) by 4.9% to 61.4 mln tonnes, including wheat by 1.7 mln tonnes to 33.67 mln tonnes, while the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimates the future wheat harvest at 34.59 mln tonnes.

“The dry weather may force farmers to increase the area under wheat, as it is more drought-resistant. At the same time, in most wheat-growing regions, especially in Alberta, due to the spring rainfall deficit, wheat yields may decrease significantly,” the USDA attaché said.

Barley production may reach 8.99 mln tonnes, which is 100 thsd tonnes higher than last year, but 500 thsd tonnes lower than the AAFC forecast. Barley planting areas will be reduced due to low prices, but yields may increase due to favorable weather conditions.

In 2024/25 MY Canada may reduce the imports of corn from 3.3 mln tonnes to 2.3 mln tonnes compared to the previous season amid the increase of domestic grain production and feed supplies. Canada buys most of the imported corn in the U.S., and in 2023/24 MY has already purchased 861.7 thsd tonnes of the grain.

In March, the domestic wheat prices in Canada fell to the lowest level since April 2021 under the pressure of the decline in the world prices, however, the flour in the country is 23% higher than in April 2021.

Tags: grain, Canada, wheat, crop forecast