USDA raised its forecast for rapeseed production in Ukraine

In the March report, the USDA experts raised the forecast of global rapeseed production in 2023/24 MY by 0.7 to 88.1 (88.82) mln tonnes, in particular for Ukraine – by 0.1 to 4.4 mln tonnes, Russia – by 0.1 to 4.2 mln tonnes, India – by 0.5 to 12.5 mln tonnes. The forecast for rapeseed exports from Russia was increased by 0.1 to 0.7 million tons, but it is unlikely to be realized due to the export ban.

The Russian authorities extended the ban on rapeseed exports until August 31, 2024, to provide raw materials to local companies. The ban does not apply to exports to the EAEU countries and deliveries by rail and road through the Zabaikalskoye checkpoint on the border with China.

amid the ban on exports from Russia, reduced supplies from Ukraine and higher prices for canola in Canada, rapeseed prices continue to rise.

Yesterday, the may futures for rapeseed on the Paris MATIF increased by 1.8% to 430,75 €/t or 471 $/t (+3.2% for the week, +3.1% for the month).

May canola futures on the Winnipeg stock exchange for the week increased by 3.5% to 616 CAD/t or 457 $/t (+2.7% for the month) amid increased exports and rising prices for palm oil.

According to the Canadian Grain Commission, in 2023/24 MY as of March 3, Canada exported 3.2 mln tonnes of canola, which is 8% higher than last year. In March, the USDA experts lowered the forecast of canola exports from Canada by 0.1 mln tonnes to 7.55 mln tonnes due to the increase in processing volumes.

Prices for Canadian canola are lower than for EU rapeseed, so Europe may step up purchases if prices rise further. Ukraine has almost stopped the supply of rapeseed to the EU due to the blockade of the border with Poland, so European farmers will be able to sell their stocks of rapeseed.

Demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine remain at 15000 UAH/t FCA farm in the western regions and 16000-16200 UAH/t in ports, but demand and the number of buyers continue to decline.

Tags: USDA Report, rapeseed, prices