USDA maintains forecast for 2022/23 US soybean stocks but cuts Argentine crop

The April report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released last Tuesday (11), did not bring much impact to the market, which is already eyeing the numbers for the new US crop (which will be released from the May report). Although some numbers were somewhat surprising, the bias expected by the market was generally confirmed. Despite the market expecting a slight reduction in US ending stocks in the 2022/23 season, their maintenance was not a relevant factor. With regard to data on South America, USDA confirmed the bias toward an increase in the Brazilian crop and a reduction in the Argentine crop, although the adjustments were greater than expected. The truth is that the numbers for the 2022/23 season are expected to no longer have a relevant impact on Chicago in the coming few months (barring major surprises), as the market’s attention is already starting to turn to the new season (2023/24), with the planting of the new US crop expected to begin in late April.

USDA indicated that the US soybean crop must hit 4.276 bln bushels in 2022/23, equivalent to 116.4 mln tons. Yields were indicated at 49.5 bushels per acre, in line with the March indications.

Ending stocks are projected at 210 mln bushels or 5.72 mln tons, repeating the previous month’s estimate. The market was betting on a carryover of 201 mln bushels or 5.47 mln tons. USDA indicated crush at 2.220 bln bushels (60.42 mln tons) and exports at 2.015 bln (54.84 mln tons), unchanged from the previous month.

With regard to the global picture, USDA projected the world soybean crop in 2022/23 at 369.64 mln tons. In March, the projection was 375.15 mln tons. Ending stocks are estimated at 100.29 mln tons, against 100 mln tons in March. The market expected ending stocks of 98.6 mln tons.

USDA projects the US crop at 116.4 mln tons, repeating the March report, as already mentioned. The Brazilian crop was increased from 153 to 154 mln tons, and the Argentine production was cut from 33 to 27 mln tons. The market was betting on 153.6 and 29 mln tons, respectively. China is expected to import 96 mln tons, the same forecast indicated in the previous month.

Tags: Argentina, reduction, exports, USDA, Brazil, soybean, US, ending stocks, yields, crop, Market