USDA increased forecasts of corn planting areas and reduced soybeans and wheat in the US, but their stocks are much higher than last year

The USDA’s quarterly reports on planted areas and old crop stocks in the US, which are released on the last Friday of June, usually come as a surprise to traders. This year, analysts’ estimates again fell short of the USDA’s forecasts, especially for planted areas.

Despite significant stocks and low prices, U.S. farmers increased the area under corn and decreased the area under soybeans and wheat, although the market expected an expansion of the area under highly profitable crops.

According to NASS USDA, in 2024, the U.S. corn planted area is 91.475 mln acres (94.6 mln acres in 2023, 88.6 mln acres in 2022 and 93.3 mln acres in 2021), which is 1.5 mln acres higher than the WASDE forecast for March and June and 1.1 mln acres higher than the average analysts’ estimate of 90.35 mln acres. On the day of the survey (June 16), 3.356 million acres remained unseeded, the second highest level since the report was released in 2020.

The soybean planting area is estimated at 86.1 (83.6, 87.5 and 87.2) million acres, which is 0.4 million acres less than in March and June, although analysts expected it to increase to 86.75 million acres.

The area under wheat planting will amount to 47.24 (49.6 and 45.8) million acres, which is 0.25 million acres less than in March and June, although analysts had expected an increase to 47.67 million acres.

Stocks of old crops in the U.S. as of June 1 amounted to:

• corn – 126.8 mln tonnes (104.3 mln tons in 2023, 110.4 mln tonnes in 2022 and 104.4 mln tons in 2021), while analysts estimated it at 123.8 mln tons
• soybeans – 35.64 (21.66, 26.4 and 20.9) million tons, while analysts estimated 26.2 million tons
• wheat – 19.1 mln tonnes (15.5 mln tons in 2023), while analysts estimated the volume at 18.6 mln tons.

Prices for soybeans and wheat barely reacted to the reports, while corn prices fell by 3%.

Futures fell in price on the Chicago stock exchange:

• July corn futures – by 4.2% to 156.5 $/t (-11.7% for the month, 218.3 $/t last year),
  November futures for corn – by 3.2% to 165,8 $/t (-10% for the month, 194,8 $/t last year),
  July futures for soybeans – by 0.1% to 423 $/t (-3% per month, 572,2 $/t last year),
  November futures for soybeans – by 0.1% to 405,7 $/t (-5.4% for the month, 493,6 $/t last year).

Tags: corn, soybean, wheat, USA, stocks, sown area