USDA forecasts decline in rapeseed harvest and processing in Ukraine

The global rapeseed production in 2024/25 is forecasted at over 88.34 mln tonnes, which corresponds to the previous season.

This is stated in the report of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) for May.

“Canada is expected to regain its position as the largest producer in the world after the European Union has overtaken it over the past 3 years. It is expected that the EU will face a significant decline in rapeseed production. In addition, it is expected that production growth in Australia and Bangladesh will largely offset the losses in Ukraine and India,” experts forecast.

At the same time, it is expected that the world’s rapeseed stocks will decrease to 7.8 mln tonnes (-4%), with Canada and Australia reducing the stocks amid the export growth.

World exports will increase to 17.64 million tons (+6%) due to increased production in Australia. Exports from Canada will also increase due to the growth of demand in the EU due to a smaller harvest.

“The global rapeseed processing will not change: the growth in Canada and Bangladesh will be offset by the decline in China, Ukraine and the UK,” the analysts predict.

At the same time, the global rapeseed meal production is forecasted at 48.6 mln tonnes, close to the record level of 2023/24.

“The expansion of processing capacities in Canada will partially compensate for the decline in Ukraine. In Ukraine, the processing will be lower as the harvest is expected to be lower in 2024/25. The trade in rapeseed meal remained unchanged, as the increase in rapeseed exports from Canada offset the decrease in rapeseed meal trade from Ukraine and India,” the experts predict and add that the US will remain the largest importer of rapeseed meal, which mainly comes from Canada.

The production of rapeseed oil will remain almost unchanged compared to the previous season and will amount to 34 mln tons, as Canada will continue to increase production, compensating for the decrease in the expected production of rapeseed oil in Ukraine.

The global supply of rapeseed oil will continue to decline and will amount to 7.63 million tons, while stocks will decrease to 2.83 million tons due to the growth of industrial and food use. The global consumption of rapeseed oil in the food industry is expected to grow by 3%.

Tags: Ukraine, EU, Canada, USDA Report, India, rapeseed