USDA experts raised forecasts for global soybean and sunflower production, including for Ukraine

In the November report, USDA experts raised their forecast for global oilseed production by 2 million tons to 661.46 million tons, which is significantly higher than the 631.3 million tons in 2022/23. The largest increases were made in the estimates of soybean and rapeseed in Russia, soybean and sunflower in Ukraine, and soybean in the United States.

Compared to the October estimates, the soybean balance for 2023/24 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of beginning stocks was decreased by 1.6 to 100.3 (98.06) million tons due to adjustments to data for China and Brazil for 2021/22 and 2022/23 MY. For China, the beginning stocks are lowered due to reduced soybean imports in 2021/22 and 2022/23 MY, and for Brazil, they are increased due to the increase in the harvest estimate for 2022/23 MY by 2 million tons to 158 million tons.
• The forecast for global production was increased by 0.92 to 400.42 (372.24) million tons, in particular for the United States – by 0.69 to 112.39 (116.22) million tons and Ukraine – by 0.4 to 5.2 million tons due to good yields. Despite the unfavorable weather during the sowing season, the estimates for South America were left unchanged.
• The estimate of world exports was left at 168.24 (170.86) million tons.
• The forecast of world ending stocks was reduced by 1.11 to 114.51 million tons (100.31 million tons in 2022/23 MY, 99.7 million tons in 2021/22 MY and 100.3 million tons in 2020/21 MY), while analysts estimate them at 115 million tons. For the United States and Brazil, the stocks estimate was increased, and for China, it was decreased due to the adjustment of the initial balances.

On the basis of the report, November soybean futures on the Chicago stock exchange yesterday fell by 1.7% to 487,9 $/t (-2.9% compared to the data after the release of the October report).

At the same time, the USDA raised its forecast for the world rapeseed crop in 2023/24 MG by 0.5 million tons, in particular for the EU – by 0.1 to 20.1 million tons and Russia – by 0.5 to 4 million tons.

The forecast of the global sunflower harvest in 2023/24 MY was increased by 0.56 to 57 (52.383) mln tonnes, in particular for Ukraine – by 0.5 to 14.5 (12.2) mln tonnes.

Estimates of sunflower processing and exports in 2023/24 MY for key countries remained almost unchanged.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, China, EU, soybean, USDA Report, sunseed, rapeseed, USA, crop forecast