USDA experts lowered the forecast of oilseeds production in the world, but raised estimates for Ukraine

In the September report, USDA experts lowered the forecast of global oilseed production, in particular soybeans in the US and canola in Canada, partially offset by the increase in sunseed and rapeseed harvest in Ukraine and canola in Australia.

Compared to the August estimates, the new oilseeds balance for 2023/24 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast of global production is reduced by 2.81 to 660.89 mln tonnes (629.66 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY), in particular, rapeseed – by 0.89 to 85.18 (88.56) mln tonnes, cotton – by 0.56 to 41.2 (43.3) mln tonnes and soybeans – by 1.06 to 401.33 (370.11) mln tonnes due to the decrease in the US soybean crop by 1.6 mln tonnes. The sunseed harvest forecast was increased for Ukraine by 0.5 to 14 (12.2) million tons, while decreased for the EU by 0.2 to 10.65 (9.2) million tons, Argentina by 0.1 to 3.9 (5) million tons and Turkey by 0.05 to 1.6 (1.9) million tons. The forecast of rapeseed harvest was lowered for Canada (due to drought during the growing season) by 0.8 to 18.2 (18.7) million tons and for the EU – by 0.5 to 19.7 (19.6) million tons, while increased for Ukraine by 0.2 to 4.3 (3.8) million tons and Australia – by 0.2 to 5.1 (7.8) million tons.
• The estimate of global processing was lowered by 1.79 to 539.45 (521) million tons, in particular for soybeans and cotton.
• The forecast of world ending stocks was lowered by 1 to 135.61 (121.69) million tons, including sunseed – by 1 to 4.17 (4.92) million tons.

For Ukraine, the forecast of sunseed exports in 2023/24 MY was increased by 0.15 to 0.95 mln tonnes, while in 2022/23 MY it was decreased by 0.125 to 1.9 mln tonnes. Consumption of sunseed in 2023/24 MY is estimated at 13.3 mln tonnes, while in 2022/23 MY the consumption estimate was increased by 0.9 mln tonnes to 13 mln tonnes.

For the EU, the forecast of sunseed imports for 2023/24 MY was left at 0.8 mln tonnes, as it is not yet known whether Bulgaria will lift the ban on sunseed supplies from Ukraine. At the same time, in 2022/23 MY the imports to the EU were decreased by 0.3 mln tonnes to 1.6 mln tonnes due to the decrease in exports from Ukraine.

For Turkey, the forecast of sunseed imports in 2023/24 MY was left at 1.2 (1.075) mln tonnes.

The forecast for rapeseed exports was lowered for Canada by 0.5 to 7.9 million tons, but increased for Ukraine by 0.2 to 3.8 million tons and Australia by 0.2 to 4.2 million tons.

November futures for canola and rapeseed fell yesterday:

• by 4.3% to 430.5 €/t or 463 $/t (-3.9% for the month, -42% for the year) on the Paris MATIF, amid an increase in the harvest in Ukraine and despite the decline in production in the EU,
• by 1.9% to 753 CAD/t or 555 $/t (-2.2% for the month, -6.2% for the year) in Winnipeg.

Tags: crop forecast, Ukraine, Turkey, EU, soybean, Canada, USDA Report, sunseed, rapeseed, Argentina