USDA experts lowered the forecast of global soybean production and stocks, and increased the estimate of consumption

In the October report, the USDA experts lowered the forecast of world production and stocks of soybeans, and increased the estimate of consumption, which led to a sharp rise in prices after a long fall.

November futures for soybeans in Chicago yesterday rose 3% to 474 $/t, although they remain 4.7% lower than a month ago, and 5.4% lower than a year ago, due to active exports of soybeans from Brazil and low export demand for soybeans in the United States.

Compared to the September estimates, the soybean balance for 2023/24 MY has undergone the following changes:

• Estimate of beginning stocks decreased by 1.1 to 101.89 (99.13) mln tonnes due to the adjustment of data for 2022/23 MY.
• The forecast of world production was reduced by 1.83 to 399.5 (370.24) million tons, in particular for the United States – by 1.14 to 111.7 (116.22) million tons due to a decrease in yields from 3.36 to 3.33 (3.32) t/ha, while for other major producing countries the estimates were left unchanged.
• The estimate of world exports was reduced by 0.18 to 168.24 (170.86) million tons, in particular for the United States – by 1 to 47.8 (54.2) million tons, while for Brazil it was increased by 0.5 to 97.5 (95.5) million tons.
• The forecast of world ending stocks was decreased by 3.63 to 115.62 million tons (101.89 million tons in 2022/23 MY, 99.7 million tons in 2021/22 MY and 100.3 million tons in 2020/21 MY), although analysts estimate them at 119.71 million tons. In China, ending stocks will increase by 2 mln tonnes amid a 1 mln tonnes decrease in initial stocks and 1 mln tonnes increase in consumption to 120 (115.7) mln tonnes. For the United States, the reserves estimate was reduced by 1.6 to 78.4 (65.2) million tons.

Tags: USDA Report, prices, soybean