USDA expects record harvest of soybeans and corn in 2024/25 season – comments

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday raised its estimates of corn and soybean production from the previous month, reinforcing expectations of significant global stocks of both crops.

COMMENTS:

Tomm Pfitzenmaier, an analyst at Summit Commodity Brokerage in Iowa

“Oh, the wheat. Everybody thought the (soybean) crop would be down, and it’s up quite a bit compared to what the trade was expecting… I think you can go and check the price of $9.20 (per bushel) for new crop beans. A carryover of 560 million bushels is huge.” Reuters

Sherman Newlin, Risk Management Commodities analyst and Illinois farmer

“The big surprise was the corn acreage. They are huge. The reduction in acreage was what we needed to help us out here and reduce that takeaway.” “We have perfect weather here. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next reports show higher yields.” Reuters

Jack Scoville, Vice President of Price Group

“The USDA is looking at a potential record harvest, so soybean prices have fallen a lot.”

“Corn held up as the USDA boosted demand.” Reuters

Jake Hanley, senior portfolio strategist at Teucrium Trading LLC

“I was surprised by how favorable this report was for corn. A yield of 183.1 is huge, but the USDA made adjustments that caused the ending stocks to go down – and that’s what everyone will be focusing on.”

“It’s a terrible outlook for soybeans, and it will take people by surprise, so the market is reacting the way it is. Given the lack of funds for soybeans, short positions will capitalize on this report.” Reuters

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodity Economist at StoneX

“The focus is on yields, and they are rising. Given the weather we’re seeing and the outlook for the rest of August, the trade is expecting bigger yields to come.” Reuters

Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading

“Obviously, farmers, seeing low (grain) prices and high costs, have decided to plant less corn and more soybeans. In areas of Minnesota, Iowa and the northern plains where there was excess water, they switched to growing beans.” Reuters

Higher planted acreage reported by the USDA in the August WASDE report, combined with record high yields, put soybean production forecast at the highest level on record. At 4.59 billion bushels, it will break the previous record of 4.46 billion bushels in 2021 if production remains at this level through the harvest season. The increase in production is also expected to increase ending stocks of soybeans by 125 million bushels by year-end to 560 million bushels, a major source of pressure on futures following the report, says Naomi Blom of Total Farm Marketing in a note. Soybeans fell 2.1%, while corn rose 1.2% and wheat fell 0.8%, Dow Jones reports.

The U.S. is expected to have record soybean and corn harvests this year, but their impact on the global supply and demand balance may be partially offset by weather problems abroad, says Don Roose of US Commodities. The 2024/25 world wheat ending stocks forecast in the August WASDE is 257.2 million metric tons, slightly lower than the forecasts of analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. “The rest of the world had weather problems, but the U.S. didn’t,” says Roose, also noting that these weather problems probably had less of an impact on soybeans, with global stocks higher than analysts expected. Wheat fell 1.2%, soybeans fell 2.3%, and corn rose 0.7%, according to Dow Jones.

Tags: corn, soybean, USDA Report