USDA expected to raise U.S. crop and stock estimates for soybeans in 2024/25

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is expected to cut its estimates for the 2024/25 US crop and ending stocks. The USDA’s August report on US and global supply and demand will be released this Monday (12).

Analysts consulted by international agencies are betting on US stocks of 472 mln bushels (12.85 mln tons) in 2024/25. For 2023/24, the market is betting on 347 mln bushels (9.44 mln tons). In July, the USDA’s forecast was 435 mln bushels (11.84 mln tons) and 345 mln bushels (9.39 mln tons), respectively.

For production, the market expects 4.469 bln bushels (121.63 mln tons) for 2024/25. In July, the Department had estimated production at 4.435 bln bushels (120.7 mln tons).

Regarding the global supply and demand scenario for soybeans, the market is betting on final stocks for 2024/25 of 127.6 mln tons. In July, the figure was 127.8 mln. For 2023/24, the market expects 110.9 mln, below the 111.3 mln indicated last month.

The conditions of US soybean crops improved again between July 28 and August 4, remaining at levels considered excellent for this time of year. With milder temperatures and some moisture being registered, plant development was considered quite satisfactory. We would like to highlight that current conditions continue to support the sentiment of a full US crop, which may even lead to a positive adjustment in average productivity and production expected by USDA in its monthly supply and demand report on the 12th.

According to USDA, 68% of US soybean crops are in good or excellent conditions, 24% in fair conditions, and 8% in poor or very poor conditions. In the previous week, the percentages were 67%, 25% and 8%, respectively. In the same period last year, the percentages were 54%, 32% and 14%, respectively.

The period between August 2 and 8 was one of lower moisture over most of the growing belt, which must have created a less favorable environment for crop development. Only states far north of the belt received favorable rainfall. In light of this, we may see a slight worsening in national indexes in the USDA’s weekly weather report, to be released today.

The climate maps now point to higher moisture over most of the growing belt between August 9 and 15, creating a more positive environment for crop development.

From August 16 and 22, lower moisture is expected for the western half of the belt, which could create a less favorable environment in some states.

Tags: USDA, soybeans, US, ending stocks, Production, crop, Market, estimates