India’s wheat output, ending stocks revised lower

India’s wheat production and ending stocks for the 2023-24 marketing year have been revised sharply lower, according to the latest Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The FAS projects production at 108 million tonnes, down from its estimate of 113.5 million earlier this year. If realized, it would still be higher than the output of 104 million tonnes in 2022-23. It also sees ending stocks falling from the previous forecast of 14 million tonnes to 8.5 million, which is also lower than last year’s total of 9.5 million and well below the record of 19.5 million two years ago.

Government wheat procurement under the Minimum Price Support (MSP) program should end below the initial procurement target of 34.2 million tonnes, the report noted. The government’s wheat procurement in 2023-24 is estimated at 26.2 million tonnes, 23% lower than its procurement target and 40% lower than the procurement of 43.3 million in 2021-22.

Domestic prices remain well above MSP prices and even last year’s prices despite the government’s continued export ban on wheat and wheat products in the absence of purchases by major exporters during the peak marketing season (April-June).

“Government intervention by means of stock limits imposed on traders and processors on June 12 failed to arrest rising domestic prices,” the FAS said. “This suggests lower than initially expected domestic production.”

Meanwhile, the FAS sees wheat exports at 1 million tonnes, down from 1.6 million in 2022-23 and far below the record export total of 10.5 million in 2021-22.

Tags: wheat, India, crop forecast