USDA analysts lowered the forecast of world wheat production in 2023/24 MY

USDA experts in their July report left the forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2023/24 MY unchanged at 17.5 mln tonnes. The estimate of Ukrainian wheat exports also remained unchanged – 10.5 mln tonnes. The ending stocks will decrease from 1.69 mln tonnes to 1.59 mln tonnes. This is evidenced by the USDA report for July.

The world wheat harvest in 2023/24 MY is forecasted at 797 mln tonnes (800 mln tonnes in the last report). Total wheat exports in 2023/24 MY are expected to reach 211.6 mln tonnes (-1 mln tonnes). The forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world is 266.5 million tons (-4.2 million tons).

Estimates of wheat production in the U.S. in the new report increased by 2.01 million tons to 47.33 million tons, exports are forecasted at the same level – 19.73 million tons. The ending stocks will increase to 16.12 mln tonnes (+0.84 mln tonnes).

“Production in the EU decreased by 2.5 million to 138 million tons, as the ongoing dry weather reduces the yield prospects mainly in Germany, Spain, France and Italy. The forecast for wheat production in Argentina was reduced by 2 million tons to 17.5 million tons based on revised government estimates of acreage,” the report said.

Forecast for the main wheat exporters for 2023/24 MY (July figures compared to June):

USDA analysts left unchanged the forecast of wheat production in China in 2023/24 MY – 140 mln tonnes, and the imports estimate – 12 mln tonnes. The ending stocks will amount to 137.13 mln tonnes (2.55 mln tonnes).

As a reminder, NASA Harvest analysts, based on the satellite analysis, estimate the total wheat production in Ukraine at 25 to 26.5 mln tonnes. According to the forecast, 21 to 22 million tons will be harvested on the territory controlled by Ukraine and 4.1 to 4.4 million tons on the territory occupied by Russia.

Tags: Russia, China, EU, Canada, USDA Report, wheat, Argentina, Ukraine