USDA analysts increased the estimate of Ukrainian wheat exports in 2023/24 MY

The global wheat production in 2023/24 season is forecasted at 781.98 mln tonnes (-1.45 mln tonnes). This is evidenced by the USDA report for November.

Analysts lowered the forecast of world wheat exports by 1.25 million tons to 205.01 million tons. Experts estimated the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world at 258.69 mln tonnes (+0.56 mln tonnes).

USDA experts left unchanged their forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2023/24 MY – 22.5 mln tonnes. The export estimate increased to 12 mln tonnes (11 mln tonnes in the previous report). The forecast of ending stocks was lowered by 1 mln tons to 3.08 mln tons.

The forecast for the harvest (49.31 million tons) and exports (19.05 million tons) of wheat in the United States remained unchanged. Ending wheat stocks in the United States will increase by 0.38 million tons to 18.60 million tons.

Forecast for the main wheat exporters for 2023/24 MY (November report compared to October):

USDA analysts did not change the forecast of wheat production in China in 2023/24 MY and left it at 137 mln tonnes, while the imports are estimated at 0.9 mln tonnes. The ending stocks increased by 1 mln tonnes to 133.92 mln tonnes.

As a reminder, in October 2023, Ukraine managed to export 4.8 mln tonnes of agricultural products, up 15% compared to the previous month.

Tags: Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, Russia, China, EU, Canada, USDA Report, wheat, USA