US corn, soybean, wheat exports down 5% from a year ago

Accumulated 2023-24 corn, soybean and wheat exports as of March 14 are down 5% compared to a year ago while outstanding sales are up 7%, according to the Grain Transportation Report (GTR) by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Total commitments for corn (maize) were up 19% from last year. China, a top buyer of US corn, reduced its purchases by 72%, mostly due to Brazil’s bumper safrinha crop. From August 2023 through January 2024, Brazil exported 45.2 million tonnes of corn, and China received one third of that total.

With Brazil shipping more to China, there was less corn available to other buyers that Brazil had served in 2022-23, the USDA said. That created opportunities for US exporters, including record demand in Mexico.

Transportation demand for corn exports is expected to increase in the rest of the marketing year. The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) calculated that 29.2 million tonnes of corn is left to be shipped by Aug. 31, which would be 24% higher than the same time last year.

For soybeans, total commitments are down 19% and accumulated exports are down 18%. The AMS calculated that 11.3 million tonnes of soybeans are left to be shipped, 5% above the same time last year.

US soybean exports dropped in four of the top five markets — Egypt by 52%; China by 25%; Japan by 5% and Mexico by 2%. The declines were due to Brazil’s record soybean production and higher US demand for crush.

Total commitments for US wheat were up 3% but accumulated exports were down 9%. Unshipped wheat exports totaled 4.8 million tonnes, up 61% from last year but 18% below the three-year average.

Looking ahead to 2024-25, the USDA said export increases are expected in corn, wheat and soybeans, suggesting rising demand for future grain transportation to export markets.

Corn exports are projected to increase 2% because of modest global trade growth. Soybean exports are expected to rise 9% but are expected to remain less than 30% of global exports. Soybean meal exports are forecast at a record high of 16.5 million short tons.

Wheat exports are forecast to increase 7% but they are still historically low, the USDA said.

“Supplies from key competitors are expected to stay abundant, thereby reducing US competitiveness and weakening the US share of the global wheat market,” the USDA said.