US 2023-24 corn yield estimates continue to decline; production increases: WASDE

The US Department of Agriculture has revised the corn yield estimate for the marketing year 2023-24 (September-August) to 173.8 bushels/acre, down from the August projection of 175.1 bu/acre, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Sept. 12.

US corn production for MY 2023-24 is forecast up 23 million bushels to 15.134 billion bushels, “as greater harvested area more than offsets a reduction in yield,” the USDA said in its latest report.

The 1.3 bu/acre yield revision comes following a prior downward revision in the June-July forecasts for the first time since 2012, and a subsequent reduction in August.

The USDA has made no change to import projections, which stand at 25 million bushels. Similarly, exports are unchanged at 2.05 billion bushels, despite heat and drought in the Midwest threatening to lower levels further on the Mississippi River, crucial for the outflow of US corn.

With supply rising slightly and use unchanged, the USDA has increased the 2023-24 US corn ending stocks estimate by 19 million bushels to 2.221 billion bushels. This is 769 million bushels above year-on-year estimates.

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Beginning stocks are down 5 million bushels to 1.452 billion bushels. The domestic total is not seen changing, while the total supply is increased marginally by 19 million bushels to 16.611 billion bushels.

The average farm price is unchanged at $4.90/bu, but that is still lower than $6.55/bu in the 2022-23 estimates.

The latest WASDE report estimates Brazil’s production for the MY 2023-24 at 129 million mt, unchanged on the month. However, the USDA increased Brazil’s current corn crop by 2 million mt to 137 million mt, owing to the positive yield reported by farmers as they harvest the second corn crop.

While exports for Brazil 2023-24 corn are estimated at 55 million mt, the beginning and ending stock projections are both increased by 1.3 million mt.

“In Brazil, we had an excellent harvest, and we are exporting more,” barter and trade specialist Rafael Barreto said. “Brazil should break the record for exports, closing above 10 million mt in September.”

Similarly, for Argentina, overall production for MY 2023-24 was estimated at 54 million mt, significantly above the previous year’s 34 million mt. Exports are projected at 40.50 million mt, compared with the 23 million mt in 2022-23 estimates.

“Ukraine corn production is raised on an increase in yield expectations,” the USDA said. While the production is estimated at 28 million mt, exports are unchanged at 19.50 million mt, despite logistical and supply chain challenges.

Ukraine’s beginning stocks for 2023-24 are projected at 1.41 million mt, while ending stocks are increased 0.54 million mt to 4.43 million mt.

China’s 2023-24 production and import projections stand at 277 million mt and 23 million mt, respectively, unchanged despite crop loss due to recurring typhoons and disruption in supply chains with the fall of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Tags: Production, forecast, yield, stocks, projection, exports, corn, USDA, Brazil, estimate, US