Ukrainian grain supplies to Spain may decrease by 3.5 mln tons in the new season

Spain forecasts an increase in its own grain production, so the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to the country in the new season may decrease. Natalia Levkoniuk, broker of Atria Brokers, told about it at Maritime Days in Odesa 2024.

In particular, Ukraine may under-deliver about 3.5 mln tons of grain to the Spanish market in the new season: 2 mln tons of corn, 1 mln tons of wheat and 500 thsd tonnes of barley.

“Perhaps, the impact of this reduction will be offset by the decline in grain production in Ukraine in 2024-25 MY,” Levkoniuk said.

Instead of the Spanish market, Ukrainian wheat can be exported to Indonesia and Bangladesh, corn – to China, barley – to Saudi Arabia.

“But so far, Ukrainian barley is having a hard time in the Saudi market. On the one hand, it is priced on FOB deep water basis at about 188 USD/t, which is equal to the cost of Romanian barley on FOB Constanta. Therefore, Romanian barley is currently traded there,” added Levkoniuk.

As of June 20, Ukraine harvested 4% of barley, which is twice as much as last year. The yield amounted to 2.98 t/ha compared to 2.65 t/ha in 2023 (+12%).

Tags: wheat, crop forecast, Ukraine, corn, export, grain, barley, Spain