Ukrainian farmers may have reached a dead end

Two years ago, when the coronavirus pandemic swept the world, I didn’t worry about Ukrainian farmers at all.

They calmly did their work, plowed the land, sowed and harvested. If in Ukrainian cities there was a difficult situation with COVID-19, the farmers almost did not notice it.

A year earlier, Ukraine’s fields were hit by a terrible drought, which caused many farmers to lose their crops. But agrarian solidarity worked. Affected companies received free seeds from colleagues, deferred payments from dealers and received lucrative loans from the state. Yes, not everyone was lucky then, but the agrarian sector of Ukraine managed to get back on its feet.

I used to think that drought was the worst thing our farmers could face. And I could predict that in a year everything would likely be fine again. But now, frankly speaking, I will not dare to make any predictions. The situation with the export of grain from Ukraine has reached a dead end.

Ukrainian farmers have at least 12 million tons of grain from last year’s harvest in their granaries. Meanwhile, the harvest of wheat and barley has begun in the southern regions, followed by rapeseed and peas, and then sunflower. I think that this grain will be able to fit into the elevators, but when they start harvesting corn, problems will begin.

Even now, experts say that in some fields, farmers will not harvest corn — it will be unprofitable and there will be nowhere to put the grain for storage.

Yes, it is now possible to send something by river through Romania, hubs are hastily built on the border with Poland for transporting grain by road and rail, but we are talking about many tens of millions of tons of grain. This volume cannot be transported in a week, or a month, or even in half a year; the infrastructure of Poland cannot withstand this.

It would be as though farmers on the Canadian Prairies were told they cannot ship their grain to Vancouver by rail. Instead, they have to haul it to the United States and then have it taken to ports in Washington state or further, to get it on a ship.

This is one problem, but the second problem is even worse. Farmers are running out of money, barely enough to harvest and sow winter crops. Getting a loan at normal interest rates is difficult. At best, you will be offered 30 percent per annum.

Only a crazy person or a farmer driven to the extreme would agree to take such a loan.

Even if you manage to find money somewhere, it is not a fact that you will be able to buy the required amount of diesel fuel.

In Ukraine, for weeks there has been an acute shortage of fuel and huge queues at gas stations. I start every day by trying to find out if they brought gasoline today or not. If I’m lucky, I’ll have to stand for five hours before refuelling in order to pour 10 or 20 litres into the tank of my car. Therefore, my daily transport is a bicycle, like many other Ukrainians.

But if a few litres of gasoline a week is enough for me to be happy, then each farmer needs tens of thousands of litres of diesel fuel to do all the work on time. I can’t imagine how they manage to fuel tractors and combines today.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that the Russians are constantly firing rockets at granaries and other agricultural facilities. It is obvious that Russian President Vladimir Putin is blackmailing the world with the threat of starvation.

At the same time, Russia blames Ukraine for this. They say, if we agreed to become slaves or dead men and refused to resist, then Ukrainian grain would again flow to the world market.

The invaders demonstrated their grain policy in the occupied regions of Ukraine. There, the grain is entirely taken away from farmers or at best they are forced to give at least half of the harvest. Stolen grain, like metal, is loaded onto ships and sent somewhere for sale.

Against this background, it is surprising to me that our farmers do not lose their presence of mind and manage to discuss agronomic issues and study modern technologies. Some give their last money for new agricultural machines or even invest in infrastructure. That is, they do not lose their presence of mind.

Frankly, this makes me happy.

During the four months of the war, I realized one important thing: if you personally do not fight in the army, then you should do your usual work as well as possible and help other people psychologically. We need to support each other and radiate confidence that everything will be fine. It is very important. Even now, a farmer needs to think about how best to grow wheat or corn. It’s their job.

But if they ask me if the grain export blockade will end, I will give only one answer: we need a lot of modern weapons and other support from abroad. We must crush Russia’s army, sink their ships that fire missiles at Ukrainian cities every day, and make this aggressive giant buckle in the legs.

We have no illusions about the peaceful outcome of this massacre. Moscow no longer hides the fact that the real goal of the aggression is the destruction of Ukraine and Ukrainians as a people and we are left with no other options but resistance.

If there are no improvements at the front, then there will be no Ukrainian grain, or stability in the global economy as a whole. After all, our farmers are now directly stating that if they fail to unblock the seaports, then they will not sow in the spring. They will not, because there is no money and nowhere to store grain for free.

That means many millions of people around the world will be left without food. In turn, sales of machinery, fertilizers and pesticides will decrease. Logistics companies will suffer big losses. This problem will affect almost all people related to the agricultural industry around the world.

But even this is not the most important thing. If Russia strangles Ukraine, the forces of evil around the world will raise their heads. It will become clear that violence and dictatorship decide everything on this planet.

Do we want our children to live in such a world?

Ihor Pavliuk is an agricultural journalist who lives in Ukraine.

Tags: wheat, drought, Ukraine, rapeseed, harvest, farmers, corn, rail, sunflower, storage, grain, road, barley, Romania, Poland, peas