Ukraine’s market of soybeans and soybean products: 2020/21 results and 2021/22 outlook

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svetlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

Soybean plantings in 2020/21 season shrank for a third consecutive season as a consequence of the state taxation policy, to 1450 Th ha (-18% from MY 2019/20). The soybean crop was at a seven-year low of 2912 KMT (-35% from MY 2019/20).

The main feature of MY 2020/21 was strong demand for non-GM soybeans, high premiums exceeding USD 100/MT compared to GM soybeans. Soybean crush slumped by 30% (1.22 MMT vs. 1.75 MMT in MY 2019/20).

The planted area for 2021/22 season is (-7% from MY 2020/21). Soybeans hardly can compete with sunflower, whose planted area hit a new high. At the same time, the crop will recover by 10-15% due to more optimistic yield forecasts.

Real-time harvest progress data show a significant harvest delay.

The beginning of MY 2021/22 features a soybean shortage and consequently slack trade, low export shipments, which are expected to intensify in the latter half of October, and growth in domestic soybean prices despite progressing harvest.

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Tags: harvest, soybean, forecast, planted area, Ukraine