Ukraine will reduce wheat exports in the new season

The key wheat exporters, including Ukraine, will reduce their supply volumes in the new season. Ukrainian wheat, which is in high demand on the global market, has started to rise in price. This was discussed on April 9 during an analytical briefing of the PUSK cooperative, created within the VAR.

“In April, we have already exported 541 thsd tonnes of wheat. Some of the products that could not be exported in March will be shipped from Ukraine in April. Therefore, this month we can reach the export level of 3 mln tons – this will happen due to the March contracts. Importers are ready to wait for wheat deliveries, as demand is growing. The increase in demand is supported by forecasts of a drop in production in the EU, the US and Ukraine, i.e. all key exporters. While last season Ukraine exported a lot due to large stocks, this year they will not exceed 1 million tons, as ports are working. At the same time, the sown areas are shrinking, and less wheat will be harvested. The first estimates of the export potential of Ukrainian wheat in the new season have already been reduced by 3-4 million tons. Although the Ukrainian CPT market saw a drop in prices last week, the market is coming back to life, with prices returning to previous levels and set to grow. Our main competitor – Russian wheat – has risen in price by $8-10 per ton in recent weeks. The price tags for Ukrainian wheat will rise by at least $2-3 per ton by the end of the week,” the analytical department of PUSK notes.

By the end of the week, the notional prices for wheat on CPT basis will be about $175 per tonne in Danube ports, $170 per tonne in deep-water ports, $198-203 per tonne on DAP Constanta basis. “Demand for wheat is expected to continue to drive the wheat market upward,” the analysts added.

Tags: export, wheat, Ukraine