Ukraine. The grain flows evolution under high freight costs
UkrAgroConsult
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In July 2023 (the first months of the 2023/24 season), Ukraine exported 3.39 M mt of agricultural products (preliminary). This is 31% lower than the 4.86 M mt exported in June 2023 (the last months of the previous 2022/23 season). The grain corridor termination reduced the export volumes of Ukraine to the lowest monthly level since July 2022, when 2.8 M mt were exported.
In July, the land transport share in total exports rose to 26%. In absolute terms, land transport exports remained unchanged from the previous month. For four months in a row, the exports by trucks/vehicles has been at the level of 200 K mt. Meanwhile, the export by train was about 650 K mt.
Demand for grain transportation by trucks to the East of Germany and Northern Italy will likely to increase in September. However, this is still insufficient compared to a rapid increase in grain supply and mounting grain stocks.
The domestic demand for grain railway deliveries to Black Sea ports disappeared after the grain agreement was stopped. However, demand towards Danube ports increased. The queue to unload wagons at the port of Izmail has reached 26 days. The transportation costs of grain from central Ukraine to the port of Izmail remained unchanged early August at $25 per tonne due to a number of contradictive factors incl. the grain agreement termination, the Izmail attacks, queues and low domestic grain prices.
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