Ukraine. Soybean Market Outlook

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

Unfortunately, due to the lack of official statistics, a wide range of market estimates of acreage and crop is becoming the norm. However, no doubt, soybean acreage will increase in 2024 in Ukraine. In 2023, according to UkrAgroConsult, the soybean area will be increased by 10-15%.

In 2023/24, both domestic and world soybeans prices remained fairly stable at a high level, recovering from the drop at the beginning of the season. In 2024/25, Ukraine is guaranteed to have a record soybean crop/supply, putting pressure on domestic prices. In addition, the soybean market is very sensitive to global trends, not only for soybeans, but also for vegetable oils and meals, especially sunflower meal.

Even if the average yield is achieved, the 2024 soybean crop will be a record. The export potential can be more than 60% of the crop. The positive factor for soybean exports currently is not only the stable demand of top buyers – EU, Turkey and Egypt – predicted in the new season 2024\25, but also relatively low logistics costs.

The experience of the last two seasons clearly shows the importance of efficient logistics, especially maritime logistics, in realizing export potential. The absence of import bans by EU countries and the functioning of the temporary sea corridor currently allow us to consider a rather optimistic export scenario for the coming season.

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Tags: export, EU, prices, soybean, sown area, crop forecast, Ukraine, Egypt, Turkey