Ukraine. S&D estimations for Oilseeds, Veg Oils, Meals (July 2023)

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

UkrAgroConsult Methodology of S&D forecasting. Oilseeds Market

• Planted and harvested area includes government-controlled areas.
• Official 2022 oilseed production numbers were published only in June 2023. UkrAgroConsult revised the 2022/23 S&D balances of sunflower, soybean and rapeseed according to the published numbers. Preliminary data on harvesting 2022 were used earlier as no official statistics were available.

Ukraine. Oilseed production in 2022

* Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine

UkrAgroConsult own estimations:

• Size of so-called Grain Market (underreported oilseed production),
• Preliminary exports numbers,
• Domestic oilseed crushing
• Weather and the crops conditions.
• Prospects of the Grain Corridor extension

The EU import ban and possible the ban lifting

• The ban was extended until Sept 15 2023 on imports from Ukraine of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia
• Of the five countries where the ban is in force, Poland is currently in favour of lifting restrictions on imports of Ukrainian agricultural products after 15 September 2023, while Hungary insists on extending restrictions until 31 December 2023 for sunflower and corn

Sunflower Market, 2022/23

The 2022/23 sunflower S&D is adjusted to increase domestic processing due to the decrease in sunflower exports and higher 2022 sunflower harvest.

Soybeans Market S&D, 2022/23

The 2022/23 soybeans S&D is adjusted to increase exports due to lower domestic processing and higher soybean crop reported by the State Statistics Office.

Rapeseed S&D, 2022/23

Numbers of rapeseed S&D remain relatively stable, given the season ends in June 2023, with key trends of 2022/23 being like the following:

• adjustment of rapeseed S&D towards bigger exports of rapeseed,
• record exports of rapeseed – 3.4 M mt, decrease in domestic crushing – 0.22 M mt,
• relatively high shipments of both rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the last months of 2022/23 season (March-June).

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Tags: sunseed, rapeseed, supply and demand balance, crop forecast, Ukraine, export, soybean