Ukraine. Logistical efficiency in the 2023/24 season and expectations for December-January

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maksym Kharchenko

Freight Market Analyst

In November, Ukraine exported 5.42 M mt of agricultural products, 25% more than in October. These exports were achieved thanks to the active work of the ports of Big Odesa, which doubled shipments in November. Exports in November are a record for 2023/24 and are in line with the monthly exports of the previous season during the UN supported grain corridor.

In November, the share of exports via the ports of Big Odesa increased to 50.1% of the total exports, which is similar to the distribution of export supply chains in January-April 2023. At the same time, the share of exports by land decreased to 20.8%, which is explained by the increase in grain transshipment by sea.

Road transport 

In November, the volume of agricultural exports by road fell to its lowest level since April 2022. The blockade of freight traffic near the largest road border crossings on the Polish-Ukrainian border continues, affecting road exports. The situation may change after 12 December, when the new Polish Prime Minister takes power, who has promised to lift the blockade quickly. However, UkrAgroConsult does not expect a significant increase in agricultural exports by road due to high logistics costs.

Rail transport

In November, exports of agricultural products by rail totalled 942 K mt, slightly higher than in October but in line with the average for recent months. The number of wagons moving towards border crossings at the end of November was 20% lower than at the end of October. Rail freight for European trains from European border crossings to main consumers in EU countries are falling.

Exports by sea 

Exports by sea through the ports of the Danube Region totalled 1.54 M ma, the lowest since February 2023. This was partly due to bad weather conditions, which prevented ships from sailing through the Sulina Canal, but mainly because the deep-water ports of the Odesa are winning the logistics competition and exporters started to switch trade flows to Odesa. At the beginning of December there were about 20 vessels waiting to enter the Sulima Canal, a number that has decreased by 30 vessels in the last 2 weeks.

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Tags: export, agricultural products, logistics, rail transportation, Black Sea port, Danube ports, Black Sea grain corridor, Ukraine