Ukraine exports only 32 million tons of grain in 23/24 MY

If the grain corridor is shut down and despite the reduction of logistical pressure, Ukraine will face difficulties in exporting agricultural products. This was stated by Elizaveta Malyshko, the grain market expert at UkrAgroConsult, in an interview with The Ukrainian Farmer.

According to her, it is currently unknown exactly how much of the previous years’ harvest remains in the temporarily occupied territories, how much was destroyed as a result of fighting, how much Ukrainian grain was stolen by Russia, etc. According to the balance sheet UkrAgroConsult is working with, Ukraine has up to 1-1.5 million tons of wheat and 8 million tons of corn to export.

“It is clear that these are the reference figures, but there is no complete understanding of the real amount of grain on the gray market. That is, there are residues, and if the grain corridor is closed, it is not known what to do with them. Of course, we can put the grain in storage, but this will incur additional costs. Besides, in just two months we will get a new harvest of barley and wheat,” stated Elizaveta Malyshko.

She clarified that according to UkrAgroConsult estimates, in 2022/23 MY Ukraine will export about 44 mln tonnes, and in 23/24 MY – only 32 mln tonnes.

“That is, the logistics pressure will decrease, but it will be quite difficult without the grain corridor. Before the full-scale war, 90% of Ukrainian agricultural products were exported by sea. Even to Italy and Spain, it was more profitable to transport grain through the deep-water ports of Greater Odesa than by land, even if agricultural production is located in western Ukraine,” the expert concluded.

Tags: Ukraine, UkrAgroConsult, export, grain