Ukraine. Corn export price strengthened to the highest point since April 18

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

All market participants anxiously waited for the publication of 2020/21 corn harvest data in order to assess real export prospects.

According to real-time information of the Economy Ministry as of October 5, farmers had harvested 5.03 MMT from 1.1 Ml ha with an average yield of 4.57 MT/ha that is down 26% from last season.

That low yield forces UkrAgroConsult to reduce its forecast for Ukraine’s corn crop because of a 8% yield decrease. Export estimate is up 9% from the five-year average but down 13% on the year owing to potentially high foreign demand (from China and the EU).

According to port data as of October 16, almost 1.1 MMT had been shipped abroad and scheduled for shipment this season (up 9% year-on-year).

Corn export price in Ukraine strengthened to the highest point since April 2018 because of an expected crop shortfall and weak farmer sales at the start of the season.

This is quite a surprising situation for importers because the competing South American markets are bullish as well.

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