Ukraine completes the harvest: what awaits the wheat market

Ukraine has threshed 3.5 million hectares and harvested over 14.7 million tons of wheat. The harvest is almost over. Contracts for the purchase of Ukrainian wheat have already been signed not only for August but also for September. Prices are showing an upward trend. This was discussed on July 30 during the analytical briefing of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, created within the VAR.

“On CPT wheat markets, there is an increase in prices by $5-6 per ton, while on CIF markets – only by $1. Usually, prices on CIF markets are the first to rise, so this situation indicates that traders have problems with contract coverage. Because of this, traders encourage farmers with higher prices,” analysts say. PUSK predicts that such a local distortion may last for about two weeks. In the seaports of Odesa, the conditional prices for wheat in the coming week will range from 175-189 USD/t on CPT basis, and 205-215 USD/t on CIF Constanta terms. For those who do not plan to sell wheat in the coming weeks, analysts advise not to pay attention to the current fluctuations, as July is an unstable month for the grain market. In the long run, wheat prices will rise. A significant factor that will support the upward movement of prices is the global decline in grain production.

“European grain markets are showing instability. The EU is expected to reduce wheat production by 10 million tons, Russia – by 10 million tons, and Ukraine – by 3-4 million tons. Only the US is forecasting a 4 million ton increase in production, which will not cover the decline in the EU and Russia. Therefore, world prices are likely to rise amid declining production,” the PUSK added.

Tags: Russia, Romania, EU, prices, wheat, USA, harvesting, Ukraine